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Climate Change Attribution

This category encompasses research aimed at understanding how human activities are affecting the global climate system, which includes the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. The resources listed below focus on how increasing concentrations of CO2 and other heat-trapping gases affect other climate variables, such as atmospheric temperature, ocean heat content, global mean sea level, and sea ice concentration. These resources include some data sets that are integral to attribution research.

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Legal Resource – Expert Declaration of Justin S. Mankin – United States v. New York

October 2025
Justin S. Mankin
Legal Document - United States v. New York
In this declaration, filed in support of defendant's opposition to plaintiff's motion for summary judgment, the author explains how climate scientists attribute GHG emissions to fossil fuel companies, and methods of attributing subsequent harm.Read More →

Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability

April 2025
Christopher W. Callahan, Justin S. Mankin
Nature
This peer-reviewed article outlines a transparent, reproducible and flexible framework to formalize how end-to-end attribution could inform litigation by assessing whose emissions are responsible for which harms.Read More →

Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescales

November 2023
T. Laepple, E. Ziegler, N. Weitzel, R. Hébert, B. Ellerhoff, P. Schoch, B. Martrat, O. Bothe, E. Moreno-Chamarro, M. Chevalier, A. Herbert, K. Rehfeld
Nature Geoscience
This peer-reviewed study reviews the evidence regarding the scale of natural temperature variability during recent millennia, and concludes that existing models may underestimate regional variability in climate outcomes over multi-decadal timescales.Read More →

Understanding and Attribution of Extreme Heat and Drought Events in 2022: Current Situation and Future Challenges

October 2023
Lixia Zhang, Xiaojing Yu, Tianjun Zhou, Wenxia Zhang, Shuai Hu, Robin Clark
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
This review article examines the role of climate change in notable events of the year in five major regions of the world: China’s Yangtze River region, western Europe, the western U.S., the Horn of Africa and central South America.Read More →

The Largest Ever Recorded Heatwave—Characteristics and Attribution of the Antarctic Heatwave of March 2022

August 2023
Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Tyler Cox, Zachary I. Espinosa, Aaron Donohoe
Geophysical Research Letters
This peer-reviewed study focuses on the record-breaking Antarctic heatwave in March 2022, assesses the implications of this heatwave for widely-used climate models, and models the impact of anthropogenic climate change on this and future heatwaves. Read More →

Sensitivity of arctic CH₄ emissions to landscape wetness diminished by atmospheric feedbacks

July 2023
Philipp de Vrese, Lutz Beckebanze, Leonardo de Aro Galera, Thomas Kleinen, Lars Kutzbach, Zoé Rehder, and Victor Brovkin
Nature Climate Change
This peer-reviewed study uses climate modeling to show that atmospheric feedbacks may accelerate increases in methane emissions from arctic permafrost due to thaw-induced drying of permafrost landscapes.Read More →

Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report

March 2023
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
This Synthesis Report summarizes the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation, based on the peer-reviewed scientific, technical and socio-economic literature since 2014.Read More →

Accelerated Transition Between Dry and Wet Periods in a Warming Climate

October 2022
Huijiao Chen, Shuo Wang
Geophysical Research Letters
Peer-reviewed study concludes that, as global warming intensifies, approximately 59% of global land area is expected to experience a shorter transition time between dry and wet periods, in so-called "climate whiplash."Read More →

Climate Shift Index

September 2022
Climate Central
Climate Central
Climate Shift Index (CSI) levels indicate how much climate change has altered the frequency of daily temperatures at a particular location. Read More →

Antarctic Peninsula warming triggers enhanced basal melt rates throughout West Antarctica

August 2022
M. Mar Flexas, Andrew F. Thompson, Michael P. Schodlok, Hong Zhang, Kevin Speer
Science Advances
This study finds that increased glacial runoff at the Antarctic Peninsula, one of the first signatures of a warming climate in Antarctica, emerges as a key trigger for increased ice shelf melt rates in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas.Read More →

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