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Impact Attribution

This category encompasses research aimed at understanding how global climate change affects human and natural systems. The resources listed below deal with localized physical impacts, such as floods, droughts, and sea level rise, and the corresponding effects on infrastructure, public health, ecosystems, agriculture, and economies.

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Attributing Human Mortality from Fire PM2.5 to Climate Change

October 2024
Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanapat Jansakoo, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel, Eleanor Burke, Fang Li, Stijn Hantson, Junya Takakura, Dong Kun Lee, Tomoko Hasegawa
Nature Climate Change
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors assess the impact of climate change on global mortalities that can be attributed to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) generated from wildfires. Read More →

Increasing frequency and intensity of the most extreme wildfires on Earth

June 2024
Calum X. Cunningham, Grant J. Williamson, David M. J. S. Bowman
Nature Ecology & Evolution
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors assess the frequency of extreme wildfire events, and find that the frequency of >99.99th percentile events has increased by 2.2x between 2002 and 2023.Read More →

Global impacts of heat and water stress on food production and severe food insecurity

June 2024
Tom Kompas, Tuong Nhu Che, R. Quentin Grafton
Nature Sustainability
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors assess impacts of water and heat stress on global food supply. Under three climate pathways (RCPs 4.5-SSP2, 8.5-SSP2, and 8.5-SSP3), the authors project declines in global food production by 6-14%.Read More →

Urban planning at the heart of increasingly severe East African flood impacts in a warming world

May 2024
Joyce Kimutai, Clair Barnes, Fredrick Masambaya, Izidine Pinto, Obed Matundura Ogega, Zacharia Mwai, Hannah Wangari, Mary Kilavi, Maja Vahlberg, Julie Arrighi, Emmanuel Raju, Nick Baumgar, Friederike E. L. Otto
World Weather Attribution
In this peer-reviewed event study, the authors assess the impact of climate change, along with several compounding factors, on a series of heavy rainfall events between March and May of 2024 in Kenya and Tanzania which caused heavy flooding.  Read More →

Wildfire Smoke Exposure and Mortality Burden in the US Under Future Climate Change

March 2024
Minghao Qiu, Jessica Li, Carlos F. Gould, Renzhi Jing, Makoto Kelp, Marissa L. Childs, Jeff Wen, Yuanyu Xie, Meiyun Lin, Mathew V. Kiang, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke
EarthArXiv (preprint)
This study projects increased mortality in the U.S. due to exposure to PM2.5 from wildfire smoke under future climate change scenarios, and projects changes in smoke PM2.5 concentrations and their health impacts.Read More →

Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Healthcare Utilization and Mortality in the United States

February 2024
Renee N. Salas, Laura G. Burke, Jessica Phelan, Gregory A. Wellenius, E. John Orav, Ashish K. Jha
Nature Medicine
This peer-reviewed study uses data from Medicare beneficiaries to examine changes in the rate of hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and mortality in the aftermath of climate-driven disasters.Read More →

State of the World’s Migratory Species

February 2024
Frances Davis, Andrew Szopa-Comley, Sarah Rouse, Aude Caromel, Andy Arnell, Saloni Basrur, Nina Bhola, Holly Brooks, Giulia Costa-Domingo, Cleo Cunningham, Katie Hunter, Matt Kaplan, Abigail Sheppard, Kelly Malsch
United Nations Environment Programme
This report, the first ever State of the World’s Migratory Species, reveals that the survival of more than 25% of migratory species is threatened by climate change.Read More →

A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate

November 2023
Jennifer Vanos, Gisel Guzman-Echavarria, Jane W. Baldwin, Coen Bongers, Kristie L. Ebi, Ollie Jay
Nature Communications
This peer-reviewed study applies physiological and biophysical principles to improve current estimates of survivability and livability under current and future climates. The authors conclude that current methodologies vastly underestimate such risks.Read More →

The social costs of tropical cyclones

November 2023
Hazem Krichene, Thomas Vogt, Franziska Piontek, Tobias Geiger, Christof Schötz, Christian Otto
Nature Communications
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors study the persistent growth effects of damaging tropical cyclones, and find that accounting for tropical cyclone impacts on growth substantially increases the global social cost of carbon by more than 20%.Read More →

The 2023 Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change: The Imperative for a Health-Centred Response in a World Facing Irreversible Harms

November 2023
Marina Romanello, Claudia di Napoli, Carole Green, Harry Kennard, Pete Lampard, Daniel Scamman, Maria Walawender, Zakari Ali, Nadia Ameli, Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Paul J Beggs, Kristine Belesova, Lea Berrang Ford, Kathryn Bowen, Wenjia Cai, Max Callaghan, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Jonathan Chambers, Troy J Cross, Kim R van Daalen, Carole Dalin, Niheer Dasandi, Shouro Dasgupta, Michael Davies, Paula Dominguez-Salas, Robert Dubrow, Kristie L Ebi, Matthew Eckelman, Paul Ekins, Chris Freyberg, Olga Gasparyan, Georgiana Gordon-Strachan, Hilary Graham, Samuel H Gunther, Ian Hamilton, Yun Hang, Risto Hänninen, Stella Hartinger, Kehan He, Julian Heidecke, Jeremy J Hess, Shih-Che Hsu, Louis Jamart, Slava Jankin, Ollie Jay, Ilan Kelman, Gregor Kiesewetter, Patrick Kinney, Dominic Kniveton, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Francesca Larosa, Jason K W Lee, Bruno Lemke, Yang Liu, Zhao Liu, Melissa Lott, Martín Lotto Batista, Rachel Lowe, Maquins Odhiambo Sewe, Jaime Martinez-Urtaza, Mark Maslin, Lucy McAllister, Celia McMichael, Zhifu Mi, James Milner, Kelton Minor, Jan C Minx, Nahid Mohajeri, Natalie C Momen, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Karyn Morrissey, Simon Munzert, Kris A Murray, Tara Neville, Maria Nilsson, Nick Obradovich, Megan B O’Hare, Camile Oliveira, Tadj Oreszczyn, Matthias Otto, Fereidoon Owfi, Olivia Pearman, Frank Pega, Andrew Pershing, Mahnaz Rabbaniha, Jamie Rickman, Elizabeth J Z Robinson, Joacim Rocklöv, Renee N Salas, Jan C Semenza, Jodi D Sherman, Joy Shumake-Guillemot, Grant Silbert, Mikhail Sofiev, Marco Springmann, Jennifer D Stowell, Meisam Tabatabaei, Jonathon Taylor, Ross Thompson, Cathryn Tonne, Marina Treskova, Joaquin A Trinanes, Fabian Wagner, Laura Warnecke, Hannah Whitcombe, Matthew Winning, Arthur Wyns, Marisol Yglesias-González, Shihui Zhang, Ying Zhang, Qiao Zhu, Peng Gong, Hugh Montgomery, Anthony Costello
The Lancet
This peer-reviewed annual report monitors the impacts of climate change on health, and publishes annual updates of over 40 health-related climate indicators. This year's report finds few signs of global progress on climate-related health issues.Read More →

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