Climate Attribution

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Extinction risks forced by climatic change and intraspecific variation in the thermal physiology of a tropical lizard

April 2018
Emerson Pontes-da-Silva, William E. Magnuson, Barry Sinervo, Gabriel H. Caetano, Donald B. Miles, Guarino R. Colli, Luisa M. Diele-Viegas, Jessica Fenker, Juan C. Santos, Fernanda P. Werneck
Journal of Thermal Biology
The study's results support the hypothesis that tropical-lizard taxa are at high risk of local extinction caused by increasing temperatures.Read More →

CMIP5 Model-based Assessment of Anthropogenic Influence on Highly Anomalous Arctic Warmth During November–December 2016

March 2018
Jonghun Kam, Thomas R. Knutson, Fanrong Zeng, Andrew T. Wittenberg
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS)
This article presents the results from CMIP5 simulations which demonstrate that the highly anomalous Arctic warmth during November–December 2016 would most likely not have been possible without anthropogenic forcing.Read More →

The High Latitude Marine Heat Wave of 2016 and Its Impacts on Alaska

March 2018
John E. Walsh, Richard L. Thoman, Uma S. Bhatt, Peter A. Bieniek, Brian Brettschneider, Michael Brubaker, Seth Danielson, Rick Lader, Florence Fetterer, Kris Holderied Katrin Iken, Andy Mahoney, Molly McCammon, James Partain
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS)
This article describes how the 2016 Alaska marine heat wave was unprecedented in terms of sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content, and how CMIP5 data suggest human-induced climate change has greatly increased the risk of such anomalies.Read More →

Massive collapse of two glaciers in western Tibet in 2016 after surge-like instability

January 2018
Andreas Kääb, Silvan Leinss, Adrien Gilbert, Yves Bühler, Simon Gascoin, Stephen G. Evans, Perry Bartelt, Etienne Berthier, Fanny Brun, Wei-An Chao, Daniel Farinotti, Florent Gimbert, Wanqin Guo, Christian Huggel, Jeffrey S. Kargel, Gregory J. Leonard, Lide Tian, Désirée Treichler & Tandong Yao
Nature Geoscience
Twin collapses of two adjacent glaciers in western Tibet were caused by climate- and weather-driven external forcing.Read More →

Attribution of Extreme Rainfall from Hurricane Harvey

January 2018
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Antonia Sebastian, Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi, Friederike Otto, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, Gabriel Vecchi, Heidi Cullen
Environmental Research Letters
This report explores Hurricane Harvey, a positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation, global warming, and flood protection in Houston. Read More →

A Multimethod Attribution Analysis of the Prolonged Northeast Brazil Hydrometeorological Drought (2012–16)

January 2018
Eduardo S. P. R. Martins, Caio A. S. Coelho, Rein Haarsma, Friederike E. L. Otto, Andrew D. King, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Francisco C. Vasconcelos Júnior, Heidi Cullen
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Northeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2016 due to a five-year drought. Using multiple methods, the article could not find sufficient evidence that anthropogenic climate change increased drought risk.Read More →

Anthropogenic Enhancement of Moderate-to-Strong El Niño Events Likely Contributed to Drought and Poor Harvests in Southern Africa During 2016

January 2018
Chris Funk, Frank Davenport, Laura Harrison, Tamuka Magadzire, Gideon Galu, Guleid A. Artan, Shraddhanand Shukla, Diriba Korecha, Matayo Indeje, Catherine Pomposi, Denis Macharia, Gregory Husak, Faka Dieudonne Nsadisa
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
A 40-member CESM LE ensemble indicates that climate change likely increased the intensity of the 2015/16 El Niño, contributing to further decreases in SA precipitation, crop production and food availability.Read More →