Climate Attribution

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Attribution of Extreme Rainfall in Southeast China During May 2015

December 2016
Claire Burke, Peter Stott, Ying Sun, Andrew Ciavarella
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Anthropogenic climate change increased the probability that a short-duration, intense rainfall event would occur in parts of southeast China. This type of event occurred in May 2015, causing serious flooding. Read More →

Influences of Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Forcing on the Extreme 2015 Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the Western North Pacific

December 2016
Wei Zhang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Hiroyuki Murakami, Gabriele Villarini, Thomas L. Delworth, Karen Paffendorf, Rich Gudgel, Liwei Jia, Fanrong Zeng, Xiaosong Yang
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The extreme value of the 2015 western North Pacific accumulated cyclone energy was mainly caused by the sea surface warming in the eastern and central Pacific. Read More →

Human Contribution to the Record Sunshine of Winter 2014/15 in the United Kingdom

December 2016
Nikolaos Christidis, Mark McCarthy, Andrew Ciavarella, Peter A. Stott
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS)
This article describes how extreme winter sunshine in the United Kingdom, as observed in the record high 2014/15 season, has become more than 1.5 times more likely to occur under the influence of anthropogenic forcings.Read More →

In Tide’s Way: Southeast Florida’s September 2015 Sunny-day Flood

December 2016
William V. Sweet, Melisa Menendez, Ayesha Genz, Jayantha Obeysekera, Joseph Park, John J. Marra
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The probability of a 0.57-m tidal flood within the Miami region has increased by >500% since 1994 from a 10.9-cm sea level rise (SLR)-related trend in monthly highest tides. Read More →

A multiregion model evaluation and attribution study of historical changes in the area affected by temperature and precipitation extremes

December 2016
Andrea J. Dittus, David J. Karoly, Sophie C. Lewis, Lisa V. Alexander, and Markus G. Donat
American Meteorological Society
Using simulations performed under different radiative forcing scenarios, a clear anthropogenic signal is found in the trends in the maximum and minimum temperature components for multiple regions.Read More →

Consumption- Based Carbon Accounting: Does It Have a Future?

November 2016
Stavros Afionis, Marco Sakai, Kate Scott, John Barrett, Andy Gouldson
WIREs Climate Change
This article provides an account of the logic behind attributing responsibility for emissions on the basis of consumption instead of production, discusses the counterarguments, and presents implementation possibilities. Read More →

Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire Across Western US Forests

October 2016
John Abatxoglou, A. Park Williams
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
This article uses modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States.Read More →

New England Cod Collapse and the Climate

July 2016
Kyle C. Meng, Kimberly L. Oremus, Steven D. Gaines
PLOS ONE
This study finds that 17% of the overall decline in Gulf of Maine cod biomass since 1980 can be attributed to positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), suggesting the role of natural and anthropogenic climatic variation.Read More →

Attributing Human Mortality During Extreme Heat Waves to Anthropogenic Climate Change

July 2016
Daniel Mitchell, Clare Heaviside, Sotiris Vardoulakis, Chris Huntingford, Giacomo Masato, Benoit P Guillod, Peter Frumhoff, Andy Bowery, David Wallom, Myles Allen
Environmental Research Letters
This study quantifies the role of human activity on climate and heat-related mortality in an event attribution framework, analyzing both the Europe-wide temperature response in 2003, and localized responses over London and Paris.Read More →