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Climate Change Attribution

This category encompasses research aimed at understanding how human activities are affecting the global climate system, which includes the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. The resources listed below focus on how increasing concentrations of CO2 and other heat-trapping gases affect other climate variables, such as atmospheric temperature, ocean heat content, global mean sea level, and sea ice concentration. These resources include some data sets that are integral to attribution research.

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The Extraordinary California Drought of 2013-2014: Character, Context, and the Role of Climate Change

September 2014
Daniel L. Swain, Michael Tsiang, Matz Haugen, Deepti Singh, Allison Charland, Bala Rajaratnam, Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
California’s driest 12-month period on record occurred during 2013/14, and while global warming likely increased the probability of certain large-scale atmospheric conditions, implications for very low precipitation in California remain uncertain. Read More →

Regional Rainfall Decline in Australia Attributed to Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Levels

July 2014
Thomas L. Delworth, Fanrong Zeng
Nature Geoscience
This study analyzes the decline in precipitation in southern Australia in the past few decades using a global climate model, demonstrating that the decline is in response to anthropogenic changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas and ozone levels.Read More →

Beyond Climatological Extremes— Assessing how the Odds of Hydrometeorological Extreme Events in South-East Europe Change in a Warming Climate

June 2014
Sebastian Sippel, F E. L. Otto
SpringerLink
This study describes the methodology of probabilistic event attribution to evaluate occurrence probabilities of extreme weather events, and estimates the hazard probabilities of those events in South-East Europe. Read More →

Working Group III Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

April 2014
Ottmar Edenhofer, Ramón Pichs-Madruga, Youba Sokona, Jan C. Minx, Ellie Farahani, Susanne Kadner, Kristin Seyboth, Anna Adler, Ina Baum, Steffen Brunner, Patrick Eickemeier, Benjamin Kriemann, Jussi Savolainen, Steffen Schlömer, Christoph von Stechow, Timm Zwickel
Cambridge University Press
This report presents an assessment climate change mitigation options, including reducing greenhouse gas emissions and reducing their concentrations in the atmosphere. Read More →

Carbon Majors: Accounting for carbon and methane emissions 1854-2010

April 2014
Richard Heede
Climate Mitigation Services
This article seeks to account for historic carbon and methane emissions between 1854 and 2010 in the fossil fuel and cement industries worldwide. Read More →

Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts

January 2014
Wolfgang Cramer, Gary W. Yohe, Maximilian Auffhammer, Christian Huggel, Ulf Molau, Maria Assunção Faus da Silva Dias, Andrew Solow, Dáithí A. Stone, Lourdes Tibig
Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
This chapter synthesizes the scientific literature on the detection and attribution of observed changes in natural and human systems in response to observed recent climate change.Read More →

IPCC AR5 WGII Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

January 2014
Christopher B. Field, Vicente R. Barros, Michael D. Mastrandrea, Katharine J. Mach, Mohamed A.-K. Abdrabo,W. Neil Adger, Yury A. Anokhin, Oleg A. Anisimov, Douglas J. Arent, Jonathon Barnett, Virginia R. Burkett, Rongshuo Cai, Monalisa Chatterjee, Stewart J. Cohen,Wolfgang Cramer, Purnamita Dasgupta, Debra J. Davidson, Fatima Denton, Petra Döll, Kirstin Dow, Yasuaki Hijioka , Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Richard G. Jones, Roger N. Jones, Roger L. Kitching , R. Sari Kovats, Joan Nymand Larsen, Erda Lin, David B. Lobell, Iñigo J. Losada, Graciela O. Magrin, José A. Marengo, Anil Markandya, Bruce A. McCarl, Roger F. McLean, Linda O. Mearns, Guy F. Midgley, Nobuo Mimura, John F. Morton , Isabelle Niang, Ian R. Noble, Leonard A. Nurse, Karen L. O’Brien, Taikan Oki , Lennart Olsson, Michael Oppenheimer, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Joy J. Pereira, Elvira S. Poloczanska, John R. Porter, Hans-O. Pörtner, Michael J. Prather, Roger S. Pulwarty, Andy Reisinger, Aromar Revi, Patricia Romero-Lankao, Oliver C. Ruppel, David E. Satterthwaite, Daniela N. Schmidt, Josef Settele, Kirk R. Smith, Dáithí A. Stone, Avelino G. Suarez, Petra Tschakert, Riccardo Valentini, Alicia Villamizar, Rachel Warren, Thomas J.Wilbanks, Poh Poh Wong, Alistair Woodward, Gary W. Yohe
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
This report considers climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. It provides a comprehensive picture of the current state of knowledge and level of certainty, based on the available scientific, technical, and socio-economic literature.Read More →

Northeast Colorado Extreme Rains Interpreted in a Climate Change Context

December 2013
Martin Hoerling, Klaus Wolter, Judith Perlwitz, Xiaowei Quan, Jon Eischeid, Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert, Henry Diaz, Randall Dole
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
This article suggests that the probability for an extreme five-day September rainfall event over northeast Colorado, as was observed in early September 2013, has likely decreased due to climate change. Read More →

Tracing Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions to Fossil Fuel and Cement Producers, 1854–2010

November 2013
Richard Heede
SpringerLink
This article describes the historic carbon dioxide and methane emissions from global fossil fuel and cement producers, and seeks to consider these emissions' possible relevance to public policy. Read More →

Accounting for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Associated with the Supply of Fossil Fuels

October 2013
Peter Erikson, Michael Lazarus
Stockholm Environment Institute
This discussion brief explores how an extraction-based emissions accounting tracks and accounts for the emissions associated with fossil fuels as they are brought into the world economy, and the implications of taking such an approach.Read More →

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