Climate Attribution

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Attribution of Extreme Rainfall from Hurricane Harvey

January 2018
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Antonia Sebastian, Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi, Friederike Otto, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, Gabriel Vecchi, Heidi Cullen
Environmental Research Letters
This report explores Hurricane Harvey, a positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation, global warming, and flood protection in Houston. Read More →

Anthropogenic Enhancement of Moderate-to-Strong El Niño Events Likely Contributed to Drought and Poor Harvests in Southern Africa During 2016

January 2018
Chris Funk, Frank Davenport, Laura Harrison, Tamuka Magadzire, Gideon Galu, Guleid A. Artan, Shraddhanand Shukla, Diriba Korecha, Matayo Indeje, Catherine Pomposi, Denis Macharia, Gregory Husak, Faka Dieudonne Nsadisa
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
A 40-member CESM LE ensemble indicates that climate change likely increased the intensity of the 2015/16 El Niño, contributing to further decreases in SA precipitation, crop production and food availability.Read More →

IPCC Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5 ºC

January 2018
Myles R. Allen, Mustafa Babiker, Yang Chen, Heleen de Coninck, Sarah Connors, Renée van Diemen, Opha Pauline Dube, Kristie L. Ebi, Francois Engelbrecht, Marion Ferrat, James Ford, Piers Forster, Sabine Fuss, Tania Guillén Bolaños, Jordan Harold, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Jean-Charles Hourcade, Daniel Huppmann, Daniela Jacob, Kejun Jiang, Tom Gabriel Johansen, Mikiko Kainuma, Kiane de Kleijne, Elmar Kriegler, Debora Ley, Diana Liverman, Nathalie Mahowald, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, J.B. Robin Matthews, Richard J. Millar, Katja Mintenbeck, Angela Morelli, Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, Luis Mundaca, Maike Nicolai, Chukwumerije Okereke, Minal Pathak, AntonyPayne, Roz Pidcock, Anna Pirani, Elvira Poloczanska, Hans-Otto Pörtner, Aromar Revi, Keywan Riahi, Debra C. Roberts, Joeri Rogelj, Joyashree Roy, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Priyadarshi R. Shukla, James Skea, Raphael Slade, Drew Shindell, Chandni Singh, William Solecki, Linda Steg, Michael Taylor, Petra Tschakert, Henri Waisman, Rachel Warren, Panmao Zhai, Kirsten Zickfeld
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
This IPCC special report explores the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. Read More →

Anthropogenic Forcings and Attributed Changes in Fire Risk in Western North America and Australia During 2015/16

January 2018
Simon F. B. Tett, Alexander Falk, Megan Rogers, Fiona Spuler, Calum Turner, Joshua Wainwright, Oscar Dimdore-Miles, Sam Knight, Nicolas Freychet, Michael J. Mineter, Caroline E. R. Lehmann
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
This study finds that for 2015/16 that human influences quintupled the risk of extreme vapor pressure deficits (VPD) for western North America and increased the risk for extratropical Australia. Read More →

Attribution of wintertime anticyclonic stagnation contributing to air pollution in Western Europe

January 2018
Robert Vautard, Augustin Colette, Erik van Meijgaard, Frederik Meleux, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike Otto, Isabelle Tobin, Pascal Yiou
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Climate simulations suggest a potential increase in frequency of stagnant wintertime conditions that prevailed over northwestern Europe in December 2016: it is significant in one multimodel ensemble but not in two single-model ensembles.Read More →

Ecological Impacts of the 2015/16 El Niño in the Central Equatorial Pacific

January 2018
Russell E. Brainard, Thomas Oliver, Michael J. McPhaden, Anne Cohen, Roberto Venegas, Adel Heenan, Bernardo Vargas-Ángel, Randi Rotjan, Sangeeta Mangubhai, Elizabeth Flint, Susan A. Hunter
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Coral reef and seabird communities in the central equatorial Pacific were disrupted by record-setting sea surface temperatures, linked to an anthropogenically forced trend, during the 2015/16 El Niño.Read More →