Climate Attribution

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Assigning Historic Responsibility for Extreme Weather Events

November 2017
Friederike E. L. Otto, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Terje Berntsen, Myles R. Allen
Nature Climate Change
Recent scientific advances make it possible to assign extreme events to human-induced climate change and historical emissions. These developments allow losses and damage associated with such events to be assigned country-level responsibility.Read More →

2017 Montana Climate Assessment

September 2017
Cathy Whitlock, Wyatt F. Cross, Bruce Maxwell, Nick Silverman, and Alisa A. Wade
Montana Climate Assessment
This assessment reports on climate trends and their consequences for three of Montana’s vital sectors: water, forests, and agriculture.Read More →

Perspective Has a Strong Effect on the Calculation of Historical Contributions to Global Warming

February 2017
Ragnhild B Skeie, Jan Fuglestvedt, Terje Berntsen, Glen P Peters, Robbie Andrew, Myles Allen, Steffen Kallbekken
IOP Science
This study explores countries' emissions responsibilities by presenting a broad and systematic analysis of how various scientific and policy-related choices influence the calculations of historical contributions for individual countries.Read More →

Attribution of Extreme Rainfall in Southeast China During May 2015

December 2016
Claire Burke, Peter Stott, Ying Sun, Andrew Ciavarella
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Anthropogenic climate change increased the probability that a short-duration, intense rainfall event would occur in parts of southeast China. This type of event occurred in May 2015, causing serious flooding. Read More →

In Tide’s Way: Southeast Florida’s September 2015 Sunny-day Flood

December 2016
William V. Sweet, Melisa Menendez, Ayesha Genz, Jayantha Obeysekera, Joseph Park, John J. Marra
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The probability of a 0.57-m tidal flood within the Miami region has increased by >500% since 1994 from a 10.9-cm sea level rise (SLR)-related trend in monthly highest tides. Read More →

Influences of Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Forcing on the Extreme 2015 Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the Western North Pacific

December 2016
Wei Zhang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Hiroyuki Murakami, Gabriele Villarini, Thomas L. Delworth, Karen Paffendorf, Rich Gudgel, Liwei Jia, Fanrong Zeng, Xiaosong Yang
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The extreme value of the 2015 western North Pacific accumulated cyclone energy was mainly caused by the sea surface warming in the eastern and central Pacific. Read More →