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Impact Attribution


Ecosystem Impacts

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A Causal Inference Framework for Climate Change Attribution in Ecology

August 2025
Joan Dudney, Laura E. Dee, Robert Heilmayr, Jarrett Byrnes, Katherine Siegel
Ecology Letters
This peer-reviewed study investigates advances in observational research design and causal inference of climate change impacts to biodiversity and ecosystems.Read More →

Detecting and attributing climate change effects on vegetation: Australia as a test case

August 2025
Laura J. Williams, Rachael V. Gallagher, Sami W. Rifai, Matthew A. Adeleye, Patrick J. Baker, David M. J. S. Bowman, Jake Eckersley, Jacqueline R. England, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Pauline F. Grierson, Assaf Inbar, Jürgen Knauer, Clare M. Stephens, Raphaël Trouvé, Belinda E. Medlyn
Plants People Planet
This peer-reviewed study performs a meta-analysis of existing literature on attribution of vegetation change in Australia to climate variability, finding that such attribution is difficult to prove and suggesting new methodologies.Read More →

Risks of Unavoidable Impacts on Forests at 1.5 °C with and without Overshoot

May 2025
Gregory Munday et al.
Nature Climate Change
This study examines the risk of irreversible impacts to forests under different warming scenarios.Read More →

Temperature Thresholds Induce Abrupt Shifts in Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in Montane Ecosystems Worldwide

April 2025
Xiao-Min Zeng, Miguel Berdugo, Tadeo Saez-Sandino, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo
PNAS
This study finds that biodiversity and ecosystem services have abrupt responses to local temperature variation, which highlights the sensitivity of montane ecosystems to climate change.Read More →

Critical Transitions in the Amazon Forest System

February 2024
Bernardo M. Flores, Encarni Montoya, Boris Sakschewski, Nathália Nascimento, Arie Staal, Richard A. Betts, Carolina Levis, David M. Lapola, Adriane Esquível-Muelbert, Catarina Jakovac, Carlos A. Nobre, Rafael S. Oliveira, Laura S. Borma, Da Nian, Niklas Boers, Susanna B. Hecht, Hans ter Steege, Julia Arieira, Isabella L. Lucas, Erika Berenguer, José A. Marengo, Luciana V. Gatti, Caio R. C. Mattos, Marina Hirota
Nature
This peer-reviewed study assesses five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, and projects that, by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests may face unexpected ecosystem transitions.Read More →

State of the World’s Migratory Species

February 2024
Frances Davis, Andrew Szopa-Comley, Sarah Rouse, Aude Caromel, Andy Arnell, Saloni Basrur, Nina Bhola, Holly Brooks, Giulia Costa-Domingo, Cleo Cunningham, Katie Hunter, Matt Kaplan, Abigail Sheppard, Kelly Malsch
United Nations Environment Programme
This report, the first ever State of the World’s Migratory Species, reveals that the survival of more than 25% of migratory species is threatened by climate change.Read More →

Climate extremes disrupt fungal–bacterial interactions

November 2023
Jingjing Shi, Madhav P. Thakur
Nature Microbiology
In this comment, the authors argue that interactions between soil fungi and bacteria may be crucial to understanding the ways that soil microbiomes change in response to climate extremes.Read More →

Climate warming and elevated CO2 alter peatland soil carbon sources and stability

November 2023
Nicholas O. E. Ofiti, Michael W. I. Schmidt, Samuel Abiven, Paul J. Hanson, Colleen M. Iversen, Rachel M. Wilson, Joel E. Kostka, Guido L. B. Wiesenberg, Avni Malhotra
Nature Communications
This peer-reviewed study examines the impact of warming and elevated atmospheric CO2 on the molecular composition of soil organic carbon. The authors' results indicate that climate change may destabilize carbon storage in peatlands.Read More →

Acidification of Northeastern USA Lakes From Rising Anthropogenic-Sourced Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Its Effects on Aluminum Speciation

November 2023
Karen H. Johannesson, Jaxon Dii Horne, Anant Misra, Catherine Aliperta, Orpheus V. Meletis, Robert C. Santore, Christopher D. White, Georgia Mavrommati, David J. Burdige
Geophysical Research Letters
This peer-reviewed study assesses how rising atmospheric CO2 will impact terrestrial freshwaters such as lakes and streams, and finds that acidification of lakes in the northeastern USA could be of similar magnitude to ocean acidification.Read More →

Extratropical forests increasingly at risk due to lightning fires

November 2023
Thomas A. J. Janssen, Matthew W. Jones, Declan Finney, Guido R. van der Werf, Dave van Wees, Wenxuan Xu, Sander Veraverbeke
Nature Geoscience
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors examine fire ignition, and show that 77% of the burned area in extratropical forests stems from lightning. These areas are expected to experience between 11 and 31% more lightning per degree of warming.Read More →

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