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Extreme Event Attribution

This category encompasses research aimed at understanding how human-induced changes in the global climate system affect the probability, severity, and other characteristics of extreme events such as hurricanes and heat waves.

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Diagnosing Conditional Anthropogenic Contributions to Heavy Colorado Rainfall in September 2013

September 2017
Pardeep Palla, Christina M. Patricola, Michael F. Wehner, Dáithí A. Stone, Christopher J. Paciorek, William D. Collins
Weather and Climate Extremes
This study investigates the possible role of anthropogenic climate change in the Colorado floods of September 2013. Read More →

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Weather Events: The Case for an Alternative (Bayesian) Approach

August 2017
Michael E. Mann, Elisabeth A. Lloyd, Naomi Oreskes
Climatic Change
This study demonstrates that a Bayesian approach to detecting and attributing climate change impacts on extreme weather events is preferable both empirically and ethically, as it will yield more accurate forecasts and will better serve society. Read More →

Detecting and Attributing Health Burdens to Climate Change

August 2017
Kristie L. Ebi, Nicholas H. Ogden, Jan C. Semenza, Alistair Woodward
Environmental Health Perspectives
This study aims to show a range of approaches for conducting detection and attribution analyses. Read More →

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

March 2017
Michael E. Mann, Stefan Rahmstorf, Kai Kornhuber, Byron A. Steinman, Sonya K. Miller, Dim Coumou
Scientific Reports
This study uses climate models and observational surface temperature datasets to demonstrate an increase in the projection for a fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. Read More →

The Role of Anthropogenic Warming in 2015 Central European Heat Waves

January 2017
Sebastian Sippel, Friederike E. L. Otto, Milan Flach, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS)
This article describes the results from station-based observations and bias-corrected model simulations, which show that the frequency of short-term heat waves in central Europe has increased.Read More →

The Deadly Combination of Heat and Humidity in India and Pakistan in Summer 2015

January 2017
Michael Wehner, Dáithí Stone, Hari Krishnan, Krishna AchutaRao, Federico Castillo
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS)
This article finds that the deadly heat waves in India and Pakistan in 2015 were exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change, though the events themselves were not connected to each other. Read More →

Attribution of Extreme Rainfall in Southeast China During May 2015

December 2016
Claire Burke, Peter Stott, Ying Sun, Andrew Ciavarella
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Anthropogenic climate change increased the probability that a short-duration, intense rainfall event would occur in parts of southeast China. This type of event occurred in May 2015, causing serious flooding. Read More →

Influences of Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Forcing on the Extreme 2015 Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the Western North Pacific

December 2016
Wei Zhang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Hiroyuki Murakami, Gabriele Villarini, Thomas L. Delworth, Karen Paffendorf, Rich Gudgel, Liwei Jia, Fanrong Zeng, Xiaosong Yang
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The extreme value of the 2015 western North Pacific accumulated cyclone energy was mainly caused by the sea surface warming in the eastern and central Pacific. Read More →

In Tide’s Way: Southeast Florida’s September 2015 Sunny-day Flood

December 2016
William V. Sweet, Melisa Menendez, Ayesha Genz, Jayantha Obeysekera, Joseph Park, John J. Marra
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The probability of a 0.57-m tidal flood within the Miami region has increased by >500% since 1994 from a 10.9-cm sea level rise (SLR)-related trend in monthly highest tides. Read More →

Human Influences on Heat-Related Health Indicators During the 2015 Egyptian Heat Wave

December 2016
Daniel Mitchell
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
This study presents a combined modeling and observational assessment of the 2015 heat wave in Egypt found that human discomfort increased due to anthropogenic climate change.Read More →

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