Climate Attribution

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Use of Models and Observations in Event Attribution

July 2015
Gabriele C Hegerl
Environmental Research Letters
This perspective to a paper studying extreme heat in Central England (King et al 2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 054002) underscores the importance of such research towards improving the reliability of event attribution results. Read More →

Attribution of Extreme Climate Events

July 2015
Kevin Trenberth, John Fasullo, Ted Shepherd
This article proposes a mechanistic or "storyline" approach to extreme event attribution and evaluates several case studies (extreme snow, flooding, and storm events) using this approach.Read More →

Attribution of Extreme Climate Events

June 2015
Kevin E. Trenberth, John T. Fasullo, Theodore G. Shepherd
Nature Climate Change
This article suggests that it is more useful to regard extreme weather events as being largely unaffected by climate change, and questions whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Read More →

Anthropogenic Warming Has Increased Drought Risk in California

March 2015
Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Daniel L. Swain, Danielle Touma
Proceedings of the National Academy of the Sciences of the United States of America
This study finds that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. Read More →

Causes of the Extreme Dry Conditions Over California During Early 2013

September 2014
Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The 2013 SST anomalies produced a predilection for California drought, whereas the longterm warming trend appears to make no appreciable contribution because of the counteraction between its dynamical and thermodynamic effects. Read More →

The Extraordinary California Drought of 2013-2014: Character, Context, and the Role of Climate Change

September 2014
Daniel L. Swain, Michael Tsiang, Matz Haugen, Deepti Singh, Allison Charland, Bala Rajaratnam, Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
California’s driest 12-month period on record occurred during 2013/14, and while global warming likely increased the probability of certain large-scale atmospheric conditions, implications for very low precipitation in California remain uncertain. Read More →