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Extreme Event Attribution

This category encompasses research aimed at understanding how human-induced changes in the global climate system affect the probability, severity, and other characteristics of extreme events such as hurricanes and heat waves.

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European State of the Climate 2021

April 2022
Copernicus Climate Change Service, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, European Commission
European Commission
This report summarizes Europe's climatic conditions in 2021, including a focus on the Arctic. Read More →

Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

February 2022
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
This report assesses the impacts of climate change and reviews vulnerabilities and the capacities and limits of the natural world and human societies to adapt.Read More →

Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021

February 2022
A. Park Williams, Benjamin I. Cook & Jason E. Smerdon
Nature Climate Change
This study shows that after exceptional drought severity in 2021, ~19% of which is attributable to anthropogenic climate trends, 2000–2021 was the driest 22-yr period since at least 800.Read More →

Atmospheric River Precipitation Enhanced by Climate Change: A Case Study of the Storm That Contributed to California’s Oroville Dam Crisis

February 2022
Allison C. Michaelis, Alexander Gershunov, Alexander Weyant, Meredith A. Fish, Tamara Shulgina, F. Martin Ralph
Earth's Future
This study assesses how climate change impacts atmospheric river precipitation.Read More →

State of the Climate: National Climate Report 2021

January 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
This online resource compiles national climate data for the year 2021. Read More →

Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates

December 2021
Joshua Studholme, Alexey V. Fedorov, Sergey K. Gulev, Kerry Emanuel, & Kevin Hodges
Nature Geoscience
This study concludes that twenty-first century tropical cyclones will most probably occupy a broader range of latitudes than those of the past 3 million years.Read More →

Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability

December 2021
Nicholas J. Leach, Antje Weisheimer, Myles R. Allen, and Tim Palmer
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
This study uses a forecast-based methodology to partially attribute the direct radiative effect of increased CO2 concentrations on the exceptional European winter heatwave of February 2019.Read More →

Atlantic tropical cyclones downscaled from climate reanalyses show increasing activity over past 150 years

December 2021
Kerry Emanuel
Nature Communications
This study uses a tropical cyclone downscaling model to show increasing tropical cyclone activity.Read More →

The effect of deforestation and climate change on all-cause mortality and unsafe work conditions due to heat exposure in Berau, Indonesia: a modelling study

November 2021
Nicholas H Wolff, PhD, Lucas R Vargas Zeppetello, MS, Luke A Parsons, PhD, Ike Aggraeni, PhD, Prof David S Battisti, PhD, Prof Kristie L Ebi, PhD, Edward T Game, PhD, Timm Kroeger, PhD, Yuta J Masuda, PhD, and June T Spector, MD
The Lancet Planetary Health
This study estimates the effects of deforestation and climate change on all-cause mortality and unsafe work conditions due to heat exposure in the tropics.Read More →

Sequential Landfall of Tropical Cyclones in the United States: From Historical Records to Climate Projections

November 2021
Dazhi Xi, Ning Lin
Geophysical Research Letters
This study examines sequential landfalling tropical cyclones along U.S. East and Gulf Coasts.Read More →

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