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Extreme Event Attribution

This category encompasses research aimed at understanding how human-induced changes in the global climate system affect the probability, severity, and other characteristics of extreme events such as hurricanes and heat waves.

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Future Global Convective Environments in CMIP6 Models

November 2021
Chiara Lepore, Ryan Abernathey, Naomi Henderson, John T. Allen, Michael K. Tippett
Earth's Future
This study shows how severe weather proxies change as a function of global temperature increase.Read More →

The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future

October 2021
Marina Romanello, Alice McGushin, Claudia Di Napoli, Paul Drummond, Nick Hughes, Louis Jamart, Harry Kennard, Pete Lampard, Baltazar Solano Rodriguez, Nigel Arnell, Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Kristine Belesova, Wenjia Cai, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Stuart Capstick, Jonathan Chambers, Lingzhi Chu, Luisa Ciampi, Carole Dalin, Niheer Dasandi, Shouro Dasgupta, Michael Davies, Paula Dominguez-Salas, Robert Dubrow, Kristie L Ebi, Matthew Eckelman, Paul Ekins, Luis E Escobar, Lucien Georgeson, Delia Grace, Hilary Graham, Samuel H Gunther, Stella Hartinger, Kehan He, Clare Heaviside, Jeremy Hess, Shih-Che Hsu, Slava Jankin, Marcia P Jimenez, Ilan Kelman, Gregor Kiesewetter, Patrick L Kinney, Tord Kjellstrom, Dominic Kniveton, Jason K W Lee, Bruno Lemke, Yang Liu, Zhao Liu, Melissa Lott, Rachel Lowe, Jaime Martinez-Urtaza, Mark Maslin, Lucy McAllister, Celia McMichael, Zhifu Mi, James Milner, Kelton Minor, Nahid Mohajeri, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Karyn Morrissey, Simon Munzert, Kris A Murray, Tara Neville, Maria Nilsson, Nick Obradovich, Maquins Odhiambo Sewe, Tadj Oreszczyn, Matthias Otto, Fereidoon Owfi, Olivia Pearman, David Pencheon, Mahnaz Rabbaniha, Elizabeth Robinson, Joacim Rocklöv, Renee N Salas, Jan C Semenza, Jodi Sherman, Liuhua Shi, Marco Springmann, Meisam Tabatabaei, Jonathon Taylor, Joaquin Trinanes, Joy Shumake-Guillemot, Bryan Vu, Fabian Wagner, Paul Wilkinson, Matthew Winning, Marisol Yglesias, Shihui Zhang, Peng Gong, Hugh Montgomery, Anthony Costello, Ian Hamilton
The Lancet
This review article represents the consensus of leading researchers on the health impacts of climate change.Read More →

Global urban population exposure to extreme heat

October 2021
Cascade Tuholske, Kelly Caylor, Chris Funk, Andrew Verdin, Stuart Sweeney, Kathryn Grace, Pete Peterson, and Tom Evans
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
This study finds that global population exposure to extreme heat increased nearly 200% from 1983 to 2016. Read More →

Machine-learning-based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies

October 2021
Max Callaghan, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Shruti Nath, Quentin Lejeune, Thomas R. Knutson, Markus Reichstein, Gerrit Hansen, Emily Theokritoff, Marina Andrijevic, Robert J. Brecha, Michael Hegarty, Chelsea Jones, Kaylin Lee, Agathe Lucas, Nicole van Maanen, Inga Menke, Peter Pfleiderer, Burcu Yesil & Jan C. Minx
Nature Climate Change
This article uses machine learning to infer that attributable anthropogenic impacts may be occurring across 80% of the world’s land area, while revealing that researchers have disproportionately focused on high-income countries.Read More →

Assessment of Historic and Future Trends of Extreme Weather in Texas, 1900-2036

October 2021
John Nielsen-Gammon, Sara Holman, Austin Buley, Savannah Jorgensen
Texas A&M University Office of the Texas State Climatologist
This report analyzes historic observations of temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather in Texas and identifies ongoing and likely future trends out to the year 2036.Read More →

Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure

September 2021
Tobias Geiger, Johannes Gütschow, David N. Bresch, Kerry Emanuel, and Katja Frieler
Nature Climate Change
This study quantifies country-level population exposure to tropical cyclone winds for different magnitudes of global mean surface temperature increase and future population distributions.Read More →

Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes

September 2021
Wim Thiery, Stefan Lange, Joeri Rogelj, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Lukas Gudmundsson, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Marina Andrijevic, Katja Frieler, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, David N. Bresch, Fang Zhao, Sven N. Willner, Matthias Büchner, Jan Volkholz, Nico Bauer, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Louis François, Manolis Grillakis, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Thomas Hickler, Veronika Huber, Akihiko Ito, Jonas Jägermeyr, Nikolay Khabarov, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Wenfeng Liu, Wolfgang Lutz, Matthias Mengel, Christoph Müller, Sebastian Ostberg, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Tobias Stacke, Yoshihide Wada
Science
This study estimates that, under current climate pledges, children born in 2020 will experience a two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heat waves, compared with people born in 1960.Read More →

NOAA Drought Task Force Report on the 2020–2021 Southwestern U.S. Drought

September 2021
NOAA Drought Task Force IV
NOAA
This report analyses the causes of the 2020–21 U.S. Southwest drought.Read More →

Linking Arctic variability and change with extreme winter weather in the United States

September 2021
Judah Cohen, Laurie Agel, Mathew Barlow, Chaim I. Garfinkel, and Ian White
Science
This study links Artic warming with periods of extreme cold across parts of Asia and North America.Read More →

Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis

August 2021
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The IPCC's most up-to-date report on physical understanding of the climate system, concluding unequivocally that human activity is driving climate change in every part of the world. Read More →

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