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Extreme Event Attribution


Extreme Heat

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Without human-caused climate change temperatures of 40oC in the UK would have been extremely unlikely

July 2022
Mariam Zachariah, Robert Vautard, Dominik L. Schumacher, Maja Vahlberg, Dorothy Heinrich, Emmanuel Raju, Lisa Thalheimer, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Sihan Li, Jingru Sun, Gabriel Vecchi, Wenchang Yang, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Simon F. B. Tett, Luke J. Harrington, Piotr Wolski, Fraser C. Lott, Mark McCarthy, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Friederike E. L. Otto
World Weather Attribution
This study finds that human-caused climate change made the UK 2022 heat wave at least 10 times more likely.Read More →

Unprecedented Heatwave in Western North America during Late June of 2021: Roles of Atmospheric Circulation and Global Warming

July 2022
Chunzai Wang, Jiayu Zheng, Wei Lin & Yuqing Wang
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
This study concludes that models show that greenhouse gases are the main reason for the long-term increase of average daily maximum temperature in western North America in the past and future.Read More →

A multi-method framework for global real-time climate attribution

June 2022
Daniel M. Gilford, Andrew Pershing, Benjamin H. Strauss, Karsten Haustein, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
This study introduces a new framework to enable the production and communication of global real-time estimates of how human-driven climate change has changed the likelihood of daily weather events.Read More →

Climate Change made devastating early heat in India and Pakistan 30 times more likely

May 2022
Mariam Zachariah, Arulalan T, Krishna AchutaRao, Fahad Saeed, Roshan Jha, Manish Kumar Dhasmana, Arpita Mondal, Remy Bonnet, Robert Vautard, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi, Dorothy Heinrich, Lisa Thalheimer, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Aditi Kapoor, Maarten van Aalst, Emmanuel Raju, Sihan Li, Jingru Sun, Gabriel Vecchi, Wenchang Yang, Mathias Hauser, Dominik L. Schumacher, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Luke J. Harrington, Friederike E. L. Otto
World Weather Attribution
This study finds that the probability of the 2022 heat wave in India and Pakistan was made 30 times more likely due to climate change.Read More →

The heatwave in North India and Pakistan in April-May 2022

May 2022
Nikolaos Christidis
Met Office
This study finds that the chances of a record-breaking heatwave in north-west India and Pakistan has been made over 100 times more likely because of climate change.Read More →

Projected increases in population exposure of daily climate extremes in eastern China by 2050

December 2021
Shah Sun, Tan-Long Dai, Zun-Ya Wang, Jie-Ming Chou, Qing-Chen Chao, Pei-Jun Shi
Advances in Climate Change Research
This peer-reviewed study uses climate and population growth models to project how population exposure to extreme climate conditions in eastern China will change by 2050. Read More →

Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability

December 2021
Nicholas J. Leach, Antje Weisheimer, Myles R. Allen, and Tim Palmer
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
This study uses a forecast-based methodology to partially attribute the direct radiative effect of increased CO2 concentrations on the exceptional European winter heatwave of February 2019.Read More →

The effect of deforestation and climate change on all-cause mortality and unsafe work conditions due to heat exposure in Berau, Indonesia: a modelling study

November 2021
Nicholas H Wolff, PhD, Lucas R Vargas Zeppetello, MS, Luke A Parsons, PhD, Ike Aggraeni, PhD, Prof David S Battisti, PhD, Prof Kristie L Ebi, PhD, Edward T Game, PhD, Timm Kroeger, PhD, Yuta J Masuda, PhD, and June T Spector, MD
The Lancet Planetary Health
This study estimates the effects of deforestation and climate change on all-cause mortality and unsafe work conditions due to heat exposure in the tropics.Read More →

Global urban population exposure to extreme heat

October 2021
Cascade Tuholske, Kelly Caylor, Chris Funk, Andrew Verdin, Stuart Sweeney, Kathryn Grace, Pete Peterson, and Tom Evans
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
This study finds that global population exposure to extreme heat increased nearly 200% from 1983 to 2016. Read More →

Assessment of Historic and Future Trends of Extreme Weather in Texas, 1900-2036

October 2021
John Nielsen-Gammon, Sara Holman, Austin Buley, Savannah Jorgensen
Texas A&M University Office of the Texas State Climatologist
This report analyzes historic observations of temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather in Texas and identifies ongoing and likely future trends out to the year 2036.Read More →

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