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Extreme Event Attribution


Extreme Rainfall

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Climate change likely increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

September 2022
Friederike E. L. Otto, Mariam Zachariah, Fahad Saeed, Ayesha Siddiqi, Kamil Shahzad, Haris Mushtaq, Arulalan T, Krishna AchutaRao, Chaithra S, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Robert Vautard, Gerbrand Koren, Izidine Pinto, Piotr Wolski, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Lisa Thalheimer, Emmanuel Raju, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Luke J. Harrington, Ben Clarke
Worldwide Weather Attribution
Between June and August of 2022, rains flooding in Pakistan affected over 33 million people, destroyed 1.7 million homes, and killed nearly 1500 people. This event attribution study analyzes the impact of climate change on this extreme rainfall.Read More →

Climate change is increasing the risk of a California megaflood

August 2022
Xingying Huang and Daniel Swain
Science Advances
This peer-reviewed study uses climate modeling to find that climate change has already doubled the likelihood of an event capable of producing catastrophic flooding in California. Read More →

Climate change increased heavy rainfall, hitting vulnerable communities in Eastern Northeast Brazil

July 2022
Mariam Zachariah, Francisco das Chagas Vasconcelos Junior, Thiago Luis do Vale Silva, Edvânia Pereira dos Santos, Caio Augusto dos Santos Coelho, Lincoln Muniz Alves, Eduardo Sávio Passos Rodrigues Martins, Alexandre C. Köberle, ROop Singh, Maja Vahlberg, Victor Machezini, Dorothy Heinrich, Lisa Thalheimer, Emmanuel Raju, Gerbrand Koren, Sjoukje Phillip, Sarah Kew, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Jingru Sun, Gabriel Vecchi, Friederike E. L. Otto
Worldwide Weather Attribution
Attribution study concluding that human-caused climate change is, at least in part, responsible for the observed increases in likelihood and intensity of heavy rainfall events like May 2022's catastrophic floods in Eastern Northeast Brazil.Read More →

The role of human-induced climate change in heavy rainfall events such as the one associated with Typhoon Hagibis

May 2022
Sihan Li & Friederike E. L. Otto
Climatic Change
This study estimates that roughly $4 billion of the damages due to the extreme heavy rainfall associated with Typhoon Hagibis are due to human-induced climate change.Read More →

Climate change exacerbated rainfall causing devastating flooding in Eastern South Africa

May 2022
Izidine Pinto, Mariam Zachariah, Piotr Wolski, Stephanie Landman, Vanetia Phakula, Wisani Maluleke, Mary-Jane Bopape, Christien Engelbrecht, Christopher Jack, Alice McClure, Remy Bonnet, Robert Vautard, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Dorothy Heinrich, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi, Lisa Thalheimer, Maarten van Aalst, Sihan Li, Jingru Sun , Gabriel Vecchi, Wenchang Yang, Jordis Tradowsky, Friederike E. L. Otto, Romeo Dipura
World Weather Attribution
This study assesses the role of climate change in flooding in Eastern South Africa.Read More →

Accelerating flash droughts induced by the joint influence of soil moisture depletion and atmospheric aridity

May 2022
Yamin Qing, Shuo Wang, Brian C. Ancell & Zong-Liang Yang
Nature Communications
This study assesses the rates and causes of flash floods.Read More →

Attribution of 2020 hurricane season extreme rainfall to human-induced climate change

April 2022
Kevin A. Reed, Michael F. Wehner & Colin M. Zarzycki
Nature Communications
This study quantifies the impact of human-induced climate change on the extreme 3-hourly storm rainfall rates and extreme 3-day accumulated rainfall amounts during the full 2020 hurricane season.Read More →

Climate change increased rainfall associated with tropical cyclones hitting highly vulnerable communities in Madagascar, Mozambique & Malawi

April 2022
Friederike E. L. Otto, Mariam Zachariah, Piotr Wolski, Izidine Pinto, Rondrotiana Barimalala, Bernardino Nhamtumbo, Remy Bonnet, Robert Vautard, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Linh N. Luu, Dorothy Heinrich, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi, Lisa Thalheimer, Maarten van Aalst, Sihan Li, Jingru Sun, Gabriel Vecchi, Luke J. Harrington
World Weather Attribution
This study analyses how human-induced climate change affected the 3-day average annual maximum rainfall in the regions worst hit by Tropical Storm Ana and Tropical Cyclone Batsirai.Read More →

Atmospheric River Precipitation Enhanced by Climate Change: A Case Study of the Storm That Contributed to California’s Oroville Dam Crisis

February 2022
Allison C. Michaelis, Alexander Gershunov, Alexander Weyant, Meredith A. Fish, Tamara Shulgina, F. Martin Ralph
Earth's Future
This study assesses how climate change impacts atmospheric river precipitation.Read More →

Projected increases in population exposure of daily climate extremes in eastern China by 2050

December 2021
Shah Sun, Tan-Long Dai, Zun-Ya Wang, Jie-Ming Chou, Qing-Chen Chao, Pei-Jun Shi
Advances in Climate Change Research
This peer-reviewed study uses climate and population growth models to project how population exposure to extreme climate conditions in eastern China will change by 2050. Read More →

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