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Extreme Event Attribution


Extreme Rainfall

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Diagnosing Conditional Anthropogenic Contributions to Heavy Colorado Rainfall in September 2013

September 2017
Pardeep Palla, Christina M. Patricola, Michael F. Wehner, Dáithí A. Stone, Christopher J. Paciorek, William D. Collins
Weather and Climate Extremes
This study investigates the possible role of anthropogenic climate change in the Colorado floods of September 2013. Read More →

Attribution of Extreme Rainfall in Southeast China During May 2015

December 2016
Claire Burke, Peter Stott, Ying Sun, Andrew Ciavarella
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Anthropogenic climate change increased the probability that a short-duration, intense rainfall event would occur in parts of southeast China. This type of event occurred in May 2015, causing serious flooding. Read More →

Extreme Fall 2014 Precipitation in the Cévennes Mountains

March 2016
R. Vautard, P. Yiou; G.-J. van Oldenborgh, G. Lenderink, S. Thao, A. Ribes, S. Planton, B. Dubuisson, J.-M. Soubeyroux
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS)
This study investigates trends in the fall seasonal maximum of daily precipitation in the Cévennes mountain range, where the highest daily precipitation amount is found in France in the fall. Read More →
February 2016
Nathalie Schaller, Alison L. Kay, Rob Lamb, Neil R. Massey, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sarah N. Sparrow, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, Ian Ashpole, Andy Bowery, Susan M. Crooks, Karsten Haustein, Chris Huntingford, William J. Ingram, Richard G. Jones, Tim Legg, Jonathan Miller, Jessica Skeggs, David Wallom, Antje Weisheimer, Simon Wilson, Peter A. Stott, Myles R. Allen
Nature Climate Change
This peer-reviewed study examined the effect of anthropogenic warming on precipitation in southern England and contribution to severe flooding and economic damages.Read More →

https://climateattribution.org/resources/6611/

Detection and Attribution of Climate Extremes in the Observed Record

January 2016
David R. Easterling, Kenneth E. Kunkel, Michael F. Wehner, Liqiang Sun
Science Direct
This article provides an overview of the practices and challenges related to the detection and attribution of observed changes in climate extremes.Read More →

Climate Change Increases the Probability of Heavy Rains Like Those of Storm Desmond in the UK—An Event Attribution Study in Near-Real Time

December 2015
G. J. van Oldenborgh, F. E. L. Otto, K. Haustein, H. Cullen
Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences
This study finds that anthropogenic climate change makes one-day precipitation events averaged over an area encompassing northern England and southern Scotland about 40% more likely.Read More →

Evidence for Added Value of Convection-Permitting Models for Studying Changes in Extreme Precipitation

December 2015
Edmund P. Meredith, Douglas Maraun, Vladimir A. Semenov, Wonsun Park
JGR Atmospheres
This study explore the added value of convection‐permitting models by comparing the response of the extreme precipitation to a wide range of SST forcings in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations using parametrized and explicit convection.Read More →

Anomalous Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific in August 2014

December 2015
Lei Yang, Xin Wang, Ke Huang, Dongxiao Wang
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The absence of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity during August 2014 was apparently related to strong easterly wind anomalies induced by combined negative intraseasonal and Pacific decadal oscillation phases.Read More →

The Timing of Anthropogenic Emergence in Simulated Climate Extremes

September 2015
Andrew D King, Markus G Donat, Erich M Fischer, Ed Hawkins, Lisa V Alexander, David J Karoly, Andrea J Dittus, Sophie C Lewis, Sarah E Perkins
Environmental Research Letters
This study uses climate models to demonstrate that temperature extremes generally emerge slightly later from their quasi-natural climate state than seasonal means.Read More →

Crucial Role of Black Sea Warming in Amplifying the 2012 Krymsk Precipitation Extreme

July 2015
Edmund P. Meredith, Vladimir A. Semenov, Douglas Maraun, Wonsun Park, Alexander V. Chernokulsky
Nature Geoscience
This study examines the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) increase on convective extremes within the region, taking the Krymsk event as a showcase example. Read More →

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