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Hydrologic Cycle

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Increased outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat

February 2021
R. F. Stuart-Smith, G. H. Roe, S. Li & M. R. Allen
Nature Geoscience
The retreat of Palcaraju glacier cannot be explained by natural variability alone, as human-induced warming equals between 85 and 105% (5–95% confidence interval) of the observed 1 °C warming in this region.Read More →

Quantitative Attribution of Climate Effects on Hurricane Harvey’s Extreme Rainfall in Texas

April 2018
S-Y Simon Wang, Lin Zhao, Jin-Ho Yoon, Phil Klotzbach, Robert R Gillies
Environmental Research Letters
This study suggests that post-1980 climate warming could have contributed to the extreme precipitation of Hurricane Harvey. Read More →

Attribution of Extreme Rainfall from Hurricane Harvey

January 2018
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Antonia Sebastian, Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi, Friederike Otto, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, Gabriel Vecchi, Heidi Cullen
Environmental Research Letters
This report explores Hurricane Harvey, a positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation, global warming, and flood protection in Houston. Read More →

A Multimethod Attribution Analysis of the Prolonged Northeast Brazil Hydrometeorological Drought (2012–16)

January 2018
Eduardo S. P. R. Martins, Caio A. S. Coelho, Rein Haarsma, Friederike E. L. Otto, Andrew D. King, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Francisco C. Vasconcelos Júnior, Heidi Cullen
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Northeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2016 due to a five-year drought. Using multiple methods, the article could not find sufficient evidence that anthropogenic climate change increased drought risk.Read More →

The Hot and Dry April of 2016 in Thailand

January 2018
Nikolaos Christidis, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon, Andrew Ciavarella, Peter A. Stott
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS)
This article describes how the record temperature of April 2016 in Thailand would not have occurred without the influence of both anthropogenic forcings and El Niño, which also increased the likelihood of low rainfall.Read More →

Influences of Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Forcing on the Extreme 2015 Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the Western North Pacific

December 2016
Wei Zhang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Hiroyuki Murakami, Gabriele Villarini, Thomas L. Delworth, Karen Paffendorf, Rich Gudgel, Liwei Jia, Fanrong Zeng, Xiaosong Yang
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The extreme value of the 2015 western North Pacific accumulated cyclone energy was mainly caused by the sea surface warming in the eastern and central Pacific. Read More →

Anomalous Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific in August 2014

December 2015
Lei Yang, Xin Wang, Ke Huang, Dongxiao Wang
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The absence of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity during August 2014 was apparently related to strong easterly wind anomalies induced by combined negative intraseasonal and Pacific decadal oscillation phases.Read More →

Regional Rainfall Decline in Australia Attributed to Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases and Ozone Levels

July 2014
Thomas L. Delworth, Fanrong Zeng
Nature Geoscience
This study analyzes the decline in precipitation in southern Australia in the past few decades using a global climate model, demonstrating that the decline is in response to anthropogenic changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas and ozone levels.Read More →

Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts

January 2014
Wolfgang Cramer, Gary W. Yohe, Maximilian Auffhammer, Christian Huggel, Ulf Molau, Maria Assunção Faus da Silva Dias, Andrew Solow, Dáithí A. Stone, Lourdes Tibig
Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
This chapter synthesizes the scientific literature on the detection and attribution of observed changes in natural and human systems in response to observed recent climate change.Read More →

Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

March 2013
Cynthia Rosenzweig, and Peter Neofotis
WIREs Climate Change
This paper argues that the expansion of methods of detection is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Read More →

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