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Impact Attribution

This category encompasses research aimed at understanding how global climate change affects human and natural systems. The resources listed below deal with localized physical impacts, such as floods, droughts, and sea level rise, and the corresponding effects on infrastructure, public health, ecosystems, agriculture, and economies.

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Key tropical crops at risk from pollinator loss due to climate change and land use

October 2023
Joseph Millard, Charlotte L. Outhwaite, Silvia Ceaușu, Luísa G. Carvalheiro, Felipe Deodato da Silvae Silva, Lynn V. Dicks, Jeff Ollerton, Tim Newbold
Science Advances
This peer-reviewed study presents a global assessment of the interactive effects of climate change and land use on pollinator abundance, and attempts to predict how these changes might translate into agricultural risk worldwide.Read More →

Projection of temperature-related mortality among the elderly under advanced aging and climate change scenario

October 2023
Yi Huang, Chen Li, De Li Liu, Jun Yang
NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science
This peer-reviewed study examines the impact of climate change on temperature-related mortality in Nantong City, China across age groups, and models the non-linear impact of climate change on mortality under four emissions scenarios.Read More →

Nonlinear El Niño impacts on the global economy under climate change

September 2023
Yi Liu, Wenju Cai, Xiaopei Lin, Ziguang Li, Ying Zhang
Nature Communications
This peer-reviewed study assesses the impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the global economy, and reveals a nonlinear relationship between El Niño intensity and its economic impact on country-level production.Read More →

Warming temperatures exacerbate groundwater depletion rates in India

September 2023
Nishan Bhattarai, David B. Lobell, Balwinder-Singh, Ram Fishman, William P. Kustas, Yadu Pokhrel, Meha Jain
Science Advances
This peer-reviewed study finds that farmers in India have adapted to warming temperatures by drawing down groundwater reservoirs, and that regional groundwater loss from 2041-2080 could be three times current depletion rates.Read More →

Unlock the Endangered Species Act to address GHG emissions

August 2023
Steven C. Amstrup, Cecilia M. Bitz
Science
This peer-reviewed policy forum piece quantifies the relationship between anthropogenic GHG emissions and polar bear population levels, and discusses the impact of this finding on their endangered species status in the United States.Read More →

Estimating coastal flood damage costs to transit infrastructure under future sea level rise

April 2023
Michael V. Martello, Andrew J. Whittle
Nature Communications Earth & Environment
This peer-reviewed study constructs an event-specific flood damage cost estimation framework for transit systems, and apply this framework to the MBTA rail transit system in Boston to estimate damages under several sea level rise conditions.Read More →

Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields

March 2023
Matias Heino, Pekka Kinnunen, Weston Anderson, Deepak K. Ray, Michael J. Puma, Olli Varis, Stefan Siebert, Matti Kummu
Nature Scientific Reports
This peer-reviewed study estimates the impacts of combined hot and dry extremes as well as cold and wet extremes on maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields at the global scale for 1980–2009.Read More →

Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally

February 2023
Caroline Taylor, Tom R. Robinson, Stuart Dunning, J. Rachel Carr, Matthew Westoby
Nature Communications
This peer-reviewed study examines the growing threat of glacial lake outburst floods, and show that 15 million people globally, particularly in high-mountain Asian and the Andes, are exposed to potential glacial lake outburst flooding.Read More →

New LiDAR-Based Elevation Model Shows Greatest Increase in Global Coastal Exposure to Flooding to Be Caused by Early-Stage Sea-Level Rise

January 2023
Ronald Vernimmen, Aljosja Hooijer
Earth's Future
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors use newer and more accurate satellite LiDAR elevation data to assess impacts of sea level rise. The study finds that in many regions flood exposure will increase much more rapidly than current models assume.Read More →

South Asian black carbon is threatening the water sustainability of the Asian Water Tower

November 2022
Junhua Yang, Shichang Kang, Deliang Chen, Lin Zhao, Zhenming Ji, Keqin Duan, Haijun Deng, Lekhendra Tripathee, Wentao Du, Mukesh Rai, Fangping Yan, Yuan Li, Robert R. Gillies
Nature Communications
This peer-reviewed study examines the effect of South Asian black carbon emissions on glacial melt in the Tibetan plateau, and indirect effects of this melt on the supply of water in densely-populated regions of South Asia.Read More →

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