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Impact Attribution

This category encompasses research aimed at understanding how global climate change affects human and natural systems. The resources listed below deal with localized physical impacts, such as floods, droughts, and sea level rise, and the corresponding effects on infrastructure, public health, ecosystems, agriculture, and economies.

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Extreme Weather Event Attribution Science and Climate Change Litigation: An Essential Step in the Causal Chain?

April 2018
Sophie Marjanac, Lindene Patton
Journal of Energy and Natural Resources Law
This article explores the discipline of event attribution science to lawyers, discusses some technical issues related to the use of this evidence in court, and makes some suggestions regarding the types of ‘climate change’ cases it may influence. Read More →

Extinction risks forced by climatic change and intraspecific variation in the thermal physiology of a tropical lizard

April 2018
Emerson Pontes-da-Silva, William E. Magnuson, Barry Sinervo, Gabriel H. Caetano, Donald B. Miles, Guarino R. Colli, Luisa M. Diele-Viegas, Jessica Fenker, Juan C. Santos, Fernanda P. Werneck
Journal of Thermal Biology
The study's results support the hypothesis that tropical-lizard taxa are at high risk of local extinction caused by increasing temperatures.Read More →

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation

February 2018
Anne Marie Panetta, Maureen L. Stanton and John Harte
Science Advances
This study's findings findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues.Read More →

Climate Change Attribution: When Is It Appropriate to Accept New Methods?

February 2018
Elisabeth A. Lloyd, Naomi Oreskes
Earth’s Future
This article argues that the risk-based approach and storyline approach to extreme event attribution are complementary and that there is no “right” or “wrong” approach to detection and attribution in any absolute sense.Read More →

Climate change, thermal niches, extinction risk and maternal‐effect rescue of toad‐headed lizards, Phrynocephalus, in thermal extremes of the Arabian Peninsula to the Qinghai—Tibetan Plateau

February 2018
Barry Sinervo, Donald B.Miles, Yayong Wu, Fausto R. Méndez-de la Cruz, Sebastián Kirchhof, Yin Qi
Integrative Zoology
This paper develops an eco-physiological model of extinction risk under climate change premised on behavioral thermoregulation. Read More →

Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence on Atmospheric Patterns Conducive to Recent Most Severe Haze Over Eastern China

February 2018
Ke Li, Hong Liao, Wenju Cai, Yang Yang
Geophysical Research Letters
This study uses climate model simulations to demonstrate how human-induced changes have significantly increased the probability of atmospheric conditions that lead to severe haze in eastern China.Read More →

Massive collapse of two glaciers in western Tibet in 2016 after surge-like instability

January 2018
Andreas Kääb, Silvan Leinss, Adrien Gilbert, Yves Bühler, Simon Gascoin, Stephen G. Evans, Perry Bartelt, Etienne Berthier, Fanny Brun, Wei-An Chao, Daniel Farinotti, Florent Gimbert, Wanqin Guo, Christian Huggel, Jeffrey S. Kargel, Gregory J. Leonard, Lide Tian, Désirée Treichler & Tandong Yao
Nature Geoscience
Twin collapses of two adjacent glaciers in western Tibet were caused by climate- and weather-driven external forcing.Read More →

Attribution of Extreme Rainfall from Hurricane Harvey

January 2018
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Antonia Sebastian, Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi, Friederike Otto, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, Gabriel Vecchi, Heidi Cullen
Environmental Research Letters
This report explores Hurricane Harvey, a positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation, global warming, and flood protection in Houston. Read More →

Anthropogenic Enhancement of Moderate-to-Strong El Niño Events Likely Contributed to Drought and Poor Harvests in Southern Africa During 2016

January 2018
Chris Funk, Frank Davenport, Laura Harrison, Tamuka Magadzire, Gideon Galu, Guleid A. Artan, Shraddhanand Shukla, Diriba Korecha, Matayo Indeje, Catherine Pomposi, Denis Macharia, Gregory Husak, Faka Dieudonne Nsadisa
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
A 40-member CESM LE ensemble indicates that climate change likely increased the intensity of the 2015/16 El Niño, contributing to further decreases in SA precipitation, crop production and food availability.Read More →

Anthropogenic Intensification of Southern African Flash Droughts as Exemplified by the 2015/16 Season

January 2018
Xing Yuan, Linying Wang, Eric F. Wood
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Flash drought over southern Africa was tripled during the last 60 years mainly due to anthropogenic climate change, and it was intensified during 2015/16 in the midst of heat waves.Read More →

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