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Impact Attribution

This category encompasses research aimed at understanding how global climate change affects human and natural systems. The resources listed below deal with localized physical impacts, such as floods, droughts, and sea level rise, and the corresponding effects on infrastructure, public health, ecosystems, agriculture, and economies.

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Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire Across Western US Forests

October 2016
John Abatxoglou, A. Park Williams
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
This article uses modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States.Read More →

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics

October 2016
Damien A. Fordham, Barry W. Brook, Conrad J. Hoskin, Robert L. Pressey, Jeremy VanDerWal and Stephen E. Williams
The Royal Society Publishing
This study shows that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change;(ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in fullRead More →

Economic Burden of Hospitalizations for Heat-Related Illnesses in the United States, 2001–2010

September 2016
Michael T Schmeltz, Elisaveta P Petkova, Janet L Gamble
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
This research explores costs associated with hospitalizations for heat-related illness in the United States using the 2001 to 2010 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Read More →

New England Cod Collapse and the Climate

July 2016
Kyle C. Meng, Kimberly L. Oremus, Steven D. Gaines
PLOS ONE
This study finds that 17% of the overall decline in Gulf of Maine cod biomass since 1980 can be attributed to positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), suggesting the role of natural and anthropogenic climatic variation.Read More →

Attributing Human Mortality during Extreme Heat Waves to Anthropogenic Climate Change

July 2016
Daniel Mitchell, Clare Heaviside, Sotiris Vardoulakis, Chris Huntingford, Giacomo Masato, Benoit P. Guillod, Peter Frumhoff, Andy Bowery, David Wallom, and Myles Allen
Environmental Research Letters
This paper explicitly quantify the role of human activity on climate and heat-related mortality in an event attribution framework, analyzing both the Europe-wide temperature response in 2003, and localized responses over London and Paris.Read More →
February 2016
Nathalie Schaller, Alison L. Kay, Rob Lamb, Neil R. Massey, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sarah N. Sparrow, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, Ian Ashpole, Andy Bowery, Susan M. Crooks, Karsten Haustein, Chris Huntingford, William J. Ingram, Richard G. Jones, Tim Legg, Jonathan Miller, Jessica Skeggs, David Wallom, Antje Weisheimer, Simon Wilson, Peter A. Stott, Myles R. Allen
Nature Climate Change
This peer-reviewed study examined the effect of anthropogenic warming on precipitation in southern England and contribution to severe flooding and economic damages.Read More →

https://climateattribution.org/resources/6611/

Detection and Attribution of Climate Extremes in the Observed Record

January 2016
David R. Easterling, Kenneth E. Kunkel, Michael F. Wehner, Liqiang Sun
Science Direct
This article provides an overview of the practices and challenges related to the detection and attribution of observed changes in climate extremes.Read More →

Causal Counterfactual Theory for the Attribution of Weather and Climate-Related Events

January 2016
A. Hannart, J. Pearl, F. E. L. Otto, P. Naveau, M. Ghil
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS)
This article gives an overview of the main concepts underpinning the causal theory and proposes methodological extensions for the causal attribution of weather and climate-related events. Read More →

Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

December 2015
United Nations
This document highlights the climate change mitigation, adaptation, and finance agreements within the UNFCCC.Read More →

Evidence for Added Value of Convection-Permitting Models for Studying Changes in Extreme Precipitation

December 2015
Edmund P. Meredith, Douglas Maraun, Vladimir A. Semenov, Wonsun Park
JGR Atmospheres
This study explore the added value of convection‐permitting models by comparing the response of the extreme precipitation to a wide range of SST forcings in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations using parametrized and explicit convection.Read More →

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