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Impact Attribution

This category encompasses research aimed at understanding how global climate change affects human and natural systems. The resources listed below deal with localized physical impacts, such as floods, droughts, and sea level rise, and the corresponding effects on infrastructure, public health, ecosystems, agriculture, and economies.

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Upward expansion of fire-adapted grasses along a warming tropical elevation gradient

November 2012
Courtney L. Angelo, Curtis C. Daehler
Ecography
This study study documents an upward expansion of fire‐adapted grasses at high elevations in the tropics as an important threat that seems to be compounded by warming trends.Read More →

The Absence of a Role of Climate Change in the 2011 Thailand Floods

July 2012
Thomas C. Peterson, Peter A. Stott, Stephanie Herring
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Using a variety of methodologies, six extreme events of the previous year are explained from a climate perspective.Read More →

Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change

May 2012
Stefan Dullinger, Andreas Gattringer, Wilfried Thuiller, Dietmar Moser, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Antoine Guisan, Wolfgang Willner, Christoph Plutzar, Michael Leitner, Thomas Mang, Marco Caccianiga, Thomas Dirnböck, Siegrun Ertl, Anton Fischer, Jonathan Lenoir, Jens-Christian Svenning, Achilleas Psomas, Dirk R. Schmatz, Urban Silc, Pascal Vittoz & Karl Hülber
Nature Climate Change
This study uses a hybrid model to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. Read More →

Chinese Drought, Bread and the Arab Spring

May 2012
Troy Sternberg
Applied Geography
Potential crop failure due to drought led China to buy wheat on the international market and contributed to a doubling of global wheat prices, resulting in price spikes with economic impacts in Egypt, where bread prices tripled. Read More →

Report of Greenhouse Gas Accounting Tools for Agriculture and Forestry Sectors

February 2012
Denef, K., K. Paustian, S. Archibeque, S. Biggar, D. Pape
USDA
This report provides an overview of publicly accessible tools (calculators, protocols, guidelines and models) for quantifying GHG emissions/offsets from agricultural and forestry activities, with a focus on farm/entity/project-level GHG accounting. Read More →

On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change

January 2012
Mark C. Urban, Josh J. Tewksbury and Kimberly S. Sheldon
The Royal Society Publishing
This study develops a model of multiple competing species along a warming climatic gradient that includes temperature-dependent competition, differences in niche breadth and interspecific differences in dispersal ability.Read More →

Equity in Climate Change: An Analytical Review

January 2012
Aaditya Mattoo, Arvind Subramanian
The World Bank
This paper presents an analytical framework to encompass contributions to the literature on equity in climate change, and highlights the consequences—in terms of future emissions allocations—of different approaches to equity. Read More →

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Agriculture and Forestry: A Review of Emission Sources, Controlling Factors, and Mitigation Potential

December 2011
Denef, K., S. Archibeque, and K. Paustian
USDA
This report presents the current state of the science regarding controlling factors and mitigation technologies for GHG emissions in U.S. agriculture and forestry, along with a summary of reported C sequestration and GHG emission reduction ranges. Read More →

Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming

August 2011
I-Ching Chen, Jane K. Hill, Ralf Ohlemüller, David B. Roy, Chris D. Thomas
Science
Using a meta-analysis, this paper estimates that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 11.0 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 16.9 kilometers per decade.Read More →

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk

July 2011
Ilya M. D. Maclean and Robert J. Wilson
PNAS
This study performs a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. Read More →

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