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Extreme Event Attribution


Storms

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Quantitative attribution of climate effects on Hurricane Harvey’s extreme rainfall in Texas

April 2018
S-Y Simon Wang, Lin Zhao, Jin-Ho Yoon, Phil Klotzbach, Robert R Gillies
IOPscience
The 60 member ensemble simulations suggest that post-1980 climate warming could have contributed to the extreme precipitation that fell on southeast Texas during 26–29 August 2017 by approximately 20%.Read More →

Attribution of Extreme Rainfall from Hurricane Harvey

January 2018
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Antonia Sebastian, Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi, Friederike Otto, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, Gabriel Vecchi, Heidi Cullen
Environmental Research Letters
This report explores Hurricane Harvey, a positive trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation, global warming, and flood protection in Houston. Read More →

Attributable Human-Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation During Hurricane Harvey

December 2017
Mark Risser, Michael Wehner
Geophysical Research Letters
This report analyzes observed precipitation to find that human-induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston. Read More →

2017 Hurricane Season Was Most Expensive in U.S. History

November 2017
Willie Drye
National Geographic
This article highlights the economic impacts of the United States' 2017 hurricane season. Read More →

The Most Expensive U.S. Hurricane Season Ever: By the Numbers

November 2017
Brian K Sullivan
Bloomberg
This article describes the 2017 U.S. Atlantic hurricane as the most expensive hurricane season to date, causing $202.6 billion in damages since its formal start on June 1st in 2017.Read More →

Influences of Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Forcing on the Extreme 2015 Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the Western North Pacific

December 2016
Wei Zhang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Hiroyuki Murakami, Gabriele Villarini, Thomas L. Delworth, Karen Paffendorf, Rich Gudgel, Liwei Jia, Fanrong Zeng, Xiaosong Yang
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The extreme value of the 2015 western North Pacific accumulated cyclone energy was mainly caused by the sea surface warming in the eastern and central Pacific. Read More →

Hurricane Gonzalo and Its Extratropical Transition to a Strong European Storm

December 2015
Frauke Feser, Monika Barcikowska, Susanne Haeseler, Christiana Lefebvre, Martina SchubertFrisius, Martin Stendel, Hans von Storch, Matthias Zahn
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
After transitioning from a hurricane to an extratropical storm, Gonzalo tracked unusually far, achieving exceptional strength over Europe; however, it was within the historical range of such transforming storms.Read More →

Anomalous Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific in August 2014

December 2015
Lei Yang, Xin Wang, Ke Huang, Dongxiao Wang
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The absence of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity during August 2014 was apparently related to strong easterly wind anomalies induced by combined negative intraseasonal and Pacific decadal oscillation phases.Read More →

Attribution of Extreme Climate Events

July 2015
Kevin Trenberth, John Fasullo, Ted Shepherd
This article proposes a mechanistic or "storyline" approach to extreme event attribution and evaluates several case studies (extreme snow, flooding, and storm events) using this approach.Read More →

Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming

November 2014
David M. Romps, Jacob T. Seeley, David Vollaro, John Molinari
Science
This study proposes that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Read More →

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