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Impact Attribution


Wildfires

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Climate-Driven Changes in Wildfire Seasonality Across North America

February 2026
Fanglu Fan, Chenliang Tao, Yuqiang Zhang, Drew Shindell, Hongliang Zhang
Geophysical Research Letters
This peer-reviewed study analyzes the impact of climate change on seasonal wildfire patterns, finding that atmospheric dryness is the primary driver of wildfire risk.Read More →

Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the USA under climate change

September 2025
Minghao Qiu, Jessica Li, Carlos F. Gould, Renzhi Jing, Makoto Kelp, Marissa L. Childs, Jeff Wen, Yuanyu Xie, Meiyun Lin, Mathew V. Kiang, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke
Nature
This peer-reviewed study examines the effects of climate change on wildfire smoke, associated mortality, and subsequent economic damages, which are among the most costly consequences of climate change in the USA.Read More →

Global assessment of historical changes in extreme fire weather: Insight from CMIP6 ensembles and implications for probabilistic attribution to global warming

September 2025
Zhongwei Liu, Jonathan M. Eden, Bastien Dieppois, Igor Drobyshev, Folmer Krikken, Matthew Blackett
Global and Planetary Change
This peer-reviewed study developed a framework to examine how climate change may influence wildfire events using a multi-model analysis, which confirms an increase in probability and duration in wildfires due to global temperature anomalies.Read More →

A call to refine fire attribution: expanding the FAR statistic to capture the complexity of Los Angeles extreme fires

August 2025
Chris Huntingford, Douglas I Kelley and Maria L F Barbosa
Environmental Research Letters
This perspective examines the causes of the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires, including climate change, human land use, campfires, faulty powerlines, and other human-driven factors, and suggests improvements to statistical analyses.Read More →

Growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in regional weekly fire extremes

May 2025
Sifang Feng, Jakob Zscheischler, Zengchao Hao & Emanuele Bevacqua
Nature - NPJ Climate Action
This peer-reviewd study examines the causal links between human induced climate change and wildfires, finding that warming increased the probability of wildfires by ~5%/decade between 2002-2015. Read More →

Attributing Human Mortality from Fire PM2.5 to Climate Change

October 2024
Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanapat Jansakoo, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel, Eleanor Burke, Fang Li, Stijn Hantson, Junya Takakura, Dong Kun Lee, Tomoko Hasegawa
Nature Climate Change
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors assess the impact of climate change on global mortalities that can be attributed to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) generated from wildfires. Read More →

Increasing frequency and intensity of the most extreme wildfires on Earth

June 2024
Calum X. Cunningham, Grant J. Williamson, David M. J. S. Bowman
Nature Ecology & Evolution
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors assess the frequency of extreme wildfire events, and find that the frequency of >99.99th percentile events has increased by 2.2x between 2002 and 2023.Read More →

Wildfire Smoke Exposure and Mortality Burden in the US Under Future Climate Change

March 2024
Minghao Qiu, Jessica Li, Carlos F. Gould, Renzhi Jing, Makoto Kelp, Marissa L. Childs, Jeff Wen, Yuanyu Xie, Meiyun Lin, Mathew V. Kiang, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke
EarthArXiv (preprint)
This study projects increased mortality in the U.S. due to exposure to PM2.5 from wildfire smoke under future climate change scenarios, and projects changes in smoke PM2.5 concentrations and their health impacts.Read More →

Climate change strongly affects future fire weather danger in Indian forests

December 2023
Anasuya Barik, Somnath Baidya Roy
Nature Communications Earth & Environment
This peer-reviewed study quantifies the impact of such changes on the fire weather of Indian forests and finds that fire risk increases in dry climate forests but may be reduced in humid forests, suggesting the importance of regional mitigation.Read More →

Extratropical forests increasingly at risk due to lightning fires

November 2023
Thomas A. J. Janssen, Matthew W. Jones, Declan Finney, Guido R. van der Werf, Dave van Wees, Wenxuan Xu, Sander Veraverbeke
Nature Geoscience
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors examine fire ignition, and show that 77% of the burned area in extratropical forests stems from lightning. These areas are expected to experience between 11 and 31% more lightning per degree of warming.Read More →

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