Climate Attribution

Detection and attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate change in industrial-era retreat of Pine Island Glacier

June 2026
Alexander T. Bradley, David T. Bett, C. Rosie Williams, Robert J. Arthern, Paul R. Holland, James Byrne, Tamsin L. Edwards, and Mira Adhikari
European Geosciences Union - The Cryosphere
This peer-reviewed study attempts to quantify the role of anthropogenic climate change in the thinning of the Pine Island Glacier in the West Antarctic, finding that it contributed about 18% to the retreat of the glacier.Read More →

The Largest Ever Recorded Heatwave—Characteristics and Attribution of the Antarctic Heatwave of March 2022

August 2023
Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Tyler Cox, Zachary I. Espinosa, Aaron Donohoe
Geophysical Research Letters
This peer-reviewed study focuses on the record-breaking Antarctic heatwave in March 2022, assesses the implications of this heatwave for widely-used climate models, and models the impact of anthropogenic climate change on this and future heatwaves. Read More →

Intense atmospheric rivers can weaken ice shelf stability at the Antarctic Peninsula

April 2022
Jonathan D. Wille, Vincent Favier, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Christoph Kittel, Jenny V. Turton, Cécile Agosta, Irina V. Gorodetskaya, Ghislain Picard, Francis Codron, Christophe Leroy-Dos Santos, Charles Amory, Xavier Fettweis, Juliette Blanchet, Vincent Jomelli & Antoine Berchet
Communications Earth & Environment
This study shows that the most intense atmospheric rivers induce extremes in temperature, surface melt, sea-ice disintegration, or large swells that destabilize the ice shelves with 40% probability.Read More →

Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges

November 2019
Alexander Nauels, Johannes Gütschow, Matthias Mengel, Malte Meinshausen, Peter U. Clark, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
PNAS
This study uses GMSLR modeling that can handle emission scenarios flexibly to establish the link between pledged NDC emissions and GMSLR until 2300, thus highlighting the longer-term climate change implications of current climate mitigation efforts.Read More →

A 40-y Record Reveals Gradual Antarctic Sea Ice Increases Followed by Decreases at Rates Far Exceeding the Rates Seen in the Arctic

July 2019
Claire L. Parkinson
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America (PNAS)
This analysis of 40 years of satellite records reveals a gradual increase in Antarctic sea ice which reversed in 2014. The rapid rates of decrease far exceed those in the Arctic and reduced the Antarctic sea ice to their lowest values in the record. Read More →

Non‐annular atmospheric circulation change induced by stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent

April 2009
John Turner, Josefino C. Comiso, Gareth J. Marshall, Tom A. Lachlan‐Cope, Tom Bracegirdle, Ted Maksym, Michael P. Meredith, Zhaomin Wang, Andrew Orr
Geophysical Research Letters
This study demonstrates that the annual mean extent of Antarctic sea ice has increased at a statistically significant rate since the late 1970s.Read More →