Climate Attribution

Climate change, El Niño and infrastructure failures behind massive floods in southern Brazil

June 2024
Ben Clarke, Clair Barnes, Regina Rodrigues, Mariam Zachariah, Lincoln Muniz Alves, Rein Haarsma, Izidine Pinto, Wenchang Yang, Maja Vahlberg, Gabriel Vecchi, Karina Izquierdo, Joyce Kimutai, Friederike E. L Otto
World Weather Attribution
This real-time event study uses peer-reviewed climate models to investigate the combined impact of climate change and the El Niño Southern Oscillation that led to extensive flooding in Brazil in late April and early May 2024.Read More →

Mercury and CO2 emissions from artisanal gold mining in Brazilian Amazon rainforest

November 2023
Benjamin Fritz, Bernhard Peregovich, Lorena da Silva Tenório, Adria Cristina da Silva Alves, Mario Schmidt
Nature Sustainability
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors investigate the use of mercury and energy at artisanal gold mining sites in Brazil, and assesses the mercury and CO2 emissions associated with this sector of the informal economy.Read More →

Climate change increased heavy rainfall, hitting vulnerable communities in Eastern Northeast Brazil

July 2022
Mariam Zachariah, Francisco das Chagas Vasconcelos Junior, Thiago Luis do Vale Silva, Edvânia Pereira dos Santos, Caio Augusto dos Santos Coelho, Lincoln Muniz Alves, Eduardo Sávio Passos Rodrigues Martins, Alexandre C. Köberle, ROop Singh, Maja Vahlberg, Victor Machezini, Dorothy Heinrich, Lisa Thalheimer, Emmanuel Raju, Gerbrand Koren, Sjoukje Phillip, Sarah Kew, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Jingru Sun, Gabriel Vecchi, Friederike E. L. Otto
Worldwide Weather Attribution
Attribution study concluding that human-caused climate change is, at least in part, responsible for the observed increases in likelihood and intensity of heavy rainfall events like May 2022's catastrophic floods in Eastern Northeast Brazil.Read More →

The Production Gap: Governments’ planned fossil fuel production remains dangerously out of sync with Paris Agreement limits

October 2021
Stockholm Environment Institute, UN Environmental Program, International Institute for Sustainable Development, ODI, E3G
Stockholm Environment Institute, UN Environmental Program, International Institute for Sustainable Development, ODI, E3G
This report tracks the discrepancy between governments’ planned fossil fuel production and global levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.Read More →

A Multimethod Attribution Analysis of the Prolonged Northeast Brazil Hydrometeorological Drought (2012–16)

January 2018
Eduardo S. P. R. Martins, Caio A. S. Coelho, Rein Haarsma, Friederike E. L. Otto, Andrew D. King, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Francisco C. Vasconcelos Júnior, Heidi Cullen
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Northeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2016 due to a five-year drought. Using multiple methods, the article could not find sufficient evidence that anthropogenic climate change increased drought risk.Read More →

Distributive Fairness: A Mutual Recognition Approach

August 2015
Arild Underdal, Taoyuan Wei
Environmental Science and Policy
This article "translates" the UNFCCC principles of responsibilities and capabilities into 15 allocation schemes and explores the implications of these schemes for the mitigation obligations and costs of seven potentially pivotal actors. Read More →