Climate Attribution

In Tide’s Way: Southeast Florida’s September 2015 Sunny-day Flood

December 2016
William V. Sweet, Melisa Menendez, Ayesha Genz, Jayantha Obeysekera, Joseph Park, John J. Marra
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The probability of a 0.57-m tidal flood within the Miami region has increased by >500% since 1994 from a 10.9-cm sea level rise (SLR)-related trend in monthly highest tides. Read More →

A multiregion model evaluation and attribution study of historical changes in the area affected by temperature and precipitation extremes

December 2016
Andrea J. Dittus, David J. Karoly, Sophie C. Lewis, Lisa V. Alexander, and Markus G. Donat
American Meteorological Society
Using simulations performed under different radiative forcing scenarios, a clear anthropogenic signal is found in the trends in the maximum and minimum temperature components for multiple regions.Read More →

Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire Across Western US Forests

October 2016
John Abatxoglou, A. Park Williams
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
This article uses modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States.Read More →

New England Cod Collapse and the Climate

July 2016
Kyle C. Meng, Kimberly L. Oremus, Steven D. Gaines
PLOS ONE
This study finds that 17% of the overall decline in Gulf of Maine cod biomass since 1980 can be attributed to positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), suggesting the role of natural and anthropogenic climatic variation.Read More →

Anthropogenic Warming Has Increased Drought Risk in California

March 2015
Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Daniel L. Swain, Danielle Touma
Proceedings of the National Academy of the Sciences of the United States of America
This study finds that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. Read More →

The Extraordinary California Drought of 2013-2014: Character, Context, and the Role of Climate Change

September 2014
Daniel L. Swain, Michael Tsiang, Matz Haugen, Deepti Singh, Allison Charland, Bala Rajaratnam, Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
California’s driest 12-month period on record occurred during 2013/14, and while global warming likely increased the probability of certain large-scale atmospheric conditions, implications for very low precipitation in California remain uncertain. Read More →

Causes of the Extreme Dry Conditions Over California During Early 2013

September 2014
Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The 2013 SST anomalies produced a predilection for California drought, whereas the longterm warming trend appears to make no appreciable contribution because of the counteraction between its dynamical and thermodynamic effects. Read More →

Northeast Colorado Extreme Rains Interpreted in a Climate Change Context

December 2013
Martin Hoerling, Klaus Wolter, Judith Perlwitz, Xiaowei Quan, Jon Eischeid, Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert, Henry Diaz, Randall Dole
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
This article suggests that the probability for an extreme five-day September rainfall event over northeast Colorado, as was observed in early September 2013, has likely decreased due to climate change. Read More →