Summary/Abstract
This expert report was written by Rupert Stuart-Smith, Ph.D., Ben Clarke, Ph.D., Luke Harrington, Ph.D., and Friederike Otto, Ph.D.. The authors are climate scientists. It was filed by the complainants in the case of The Planet v. Bolsonaro.
In the report, the authors provide expert testimony for submission to the International Criminal Court on the impact of the Bolsonaro Administration’s deforestation initiatives on global climate change. Specifically, the authors explain recent developments in climate science that “allow causal links to be drawn between drivers of climate change (i.e. emissions) and their impacts.” The authors analyze the increased deforestation during the Bolsonaro Administration from 2019-2022, the consequent “uptick in emissions of greenhouse gases from the Brazilian Amazon,” and the consequences of those emissions “that can be attributed to the government of President Jair Bolsonaro.” Emissions are calculated based on 1) reductions in CO2 sequestration, 2) CO2 emissions from burning of deforested land, and 3) methane emissions released from replacing forested land with cattle. The authors calculate the emissions expected during the relevant time frame, and the impacts, including flooding, drought, wildfires, glacial retreat, increased storms, and consequences to food security and human health.
The underlying case, The Planet v. Bolsonaro, was brought by the NGO All Rise, in a communication to the Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), requesting an investigation into the Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, for his role in Crimes Against Humanity resulting from ongoing deforestation and related activities in the Amazon rainforest. For more information about this case, visit the Sabin Center’s Climate Litigation Database.
Note: This climate attribution research was presented in the context of a contested legal proceeding. Different countries, courts, and legal forums may have different standards for expert testimony, and may conduct fact-finding based on legal standards of proof that differ from those applied in academic publishing. Readers should independently investigate and understand the bases for the assertions made in this document before applying this research in other contexts.