Climate Attribution

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Human Contribution to the Record Sunshine of Winter 2014/15 in the United Kingdom

December 2016
Nikolaos Christidis, Mark McCarthy, Andrew Ciavarella, Peter A. Stott
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS)
This article describes how extreme winter sunshine in the United Kingdom, as observed in the record high 2014/15 season, has become more than 1.5 times more likely to occur under the influence of anthropogenic forcings.Read More →

In Tide’s Way: Southeast Florida’s September 2015 Sunny-day Flood

December 2016
William V. Sweet, Melisa Menendez, Ayesha Genz, Jayantha Obeysekera, Joseph Park, John J. Marra
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The probability of a 0.57-m tidal flood within the Miami region has increased by >500% since 1994 from a 10.9-cm sea level rise (SLR)-related trend in monthly highest tides. Read More →

Consumption- Based Carbon Accounting: Does It Have a Future?

November 2016
Stavros Afionis, Marco Sakai, Kate Scott, John Barrett, Andy Gouldson
WIREs Climate Change
This article provides an account of the logic behind attributing responsibility for emissions on the basis of consumption instead of production, discusses the counterarguments, and presents implementation possibilities. Read More →

Attribution of Net Carbon Change by Disturbance Type Across Forest Lands of the Conterminous United States

November 2016
N.L. Harris, S.C. Hagen, S.S. Saatchi, T.R.H. Pearson, C.W. Woodall, G.M. Domke, B.H. Braswell, B.F. Walters, S. Brown, W. Salas, A. Fore, Y. Yu
Carbon Balance and Management
This study provides analysis of the net carbon change across forest lands in the conterminous U.S. between 2006 and 2010, attributing changes to both natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Read More →

Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire Across Western US Forests

October 2016
John Abatxoglou, A. Park Williams
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
This article uses modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States.Read More →

Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics

October 2016
Damien A. Fordham, Barry W. Brook, Conrad J. Hoskin, Robert L. Pressey, Jeremy VanDerWal and Stephen E. Williams
The Royal Society Publishing
This study shows that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change;(ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in fullRead More →

The Attribution Question

August 2016
Friederike E. L. Otto, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Jonathan Eden, Peter A. Stott, David J. Karoly, Myles R. Allen
Nature Climate Change
This article explores how understanding the changing risks of extreme events in a warming world requires both a thermodynamic perspective and an understanding of changes in atmospheric circulation.Read More →