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Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change

January 2016
Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution, The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
This report examines the science of attribution of specific extreme weather events to human-caused climate change and natural variability by reviewing current understanding and capabilities. Read More →

The Role of the Selection Problem and Non-Gaussianity in Attribution of Single Events to Climate Change

December 2015
Bo Christiansen
Journal of Climate
This study explores the methodological issues connected to the selection problem and deviations from Gaussianity that should be considered before comprehensive climate models are invoked.Read More →

Climate Change Increases the Probability of Heavy Rains Like Those of Storm Desmond in the UK—An Event Attribution Study in Near-Real Time

December 2015
G. J. van Oldenborgh, F. E. L. Otto, K. Haustein, H. Cullen
Hydrology and Earth Systems Sciences
This study finds that anthropogenic climate change makes one-day precipitation events averaged over an area encompassing northern England and southern Scotland about 40% more likely.Read More →

Attribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events

December 2015
Peter A. Stott, Nikolaos Christidis, Friederike E. L. Otto, Ying Sun, Jean‐Paul Vanderlinden, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Robert Vautard, Hans von Storch, Peter Walton, Pascal Yiou, Francis W. Zwiers
Wiley
This article provides an overview of event attribution assessments and how they are developed. Read More →

Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

December 2015
United Nations
This document highlights the climate change mitigation, adaptation, and finance agreements within the UNFCCC.Read More →

Evidence for Added Value of Convection-Permitting Models for Studying Changes in Extreme Precipitation

December 2015
Edmund P. Meredith, Douglas Maraun, Vladimir A. Semenov, Wonsun Park
JGR Atmospheres
This study explore the added value of convection‐permitting models by comparing the response of the extreme precipitation to a wide range of SST forcings in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations using parametrized and explicit convection.Read More →

The 2014 Drought in the Horn of Africa: Attribution of Meteorological Drivers

December 2015
T. R. Marthews, F. E. L. Otto, D. Mitchell, S. J. Dadson, R. G. Jones
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Ensemble modeling of the East African 2014 long rains season suggests no anthropogenic influence on the likelihood of low rainfall but clear signals in other drivers of drought.Read More →

Hurricane Gonzalo and Its Extratropical Transition to a Strong European Storm

December 2015
Frauke Feser, Monika Barcikowska, Susanne Haeseler, Christiana Lefebvre, Martina SchubertFrisius, Martin Stendel, Hans von Storch, Matthias Zahn
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
After transitioning from a hurricane to an extratropical storm, Gonzalo tracked unusually far, achieving exceptional strength over Europe; however, it was within the historical range of such transforming storms.Read More →

Anomalous Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific in August 2014

December 2015
Lei Yang, Xin Wang, Ke Huang, Dongxiao Wang
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The absence of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity during August 2014 was apparently related to strong easterly wind anomalies induced by combined negative intraseasonal and Pacific decadal oscillation phases.Read More →

Changes in the Geospatial Height at 500 hPa Under the Influence of External Climatic Forcings

November 2015
Nikolaos Christidis, Peter A. Stott
Geophysical Research Letters
This study investigates the effects of climate forcings in the lower atmosphere using the geopotential height at 500 hPa, revealing the prominent role of human influence on some recent climatic changes.Read More →

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