Climate Attribution

Machine-Learning-Based Evidence and Attribution Mapping of 100,000 Climate Impact Studies

November 2021
Max Callaghan, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Shruti Nath, Quentin Lejeune, Thomas R. Knutson, Markus Reichstein, Gerrit Hansen, Emily Theokritoff, Marina Andrijevic, Robert J. Brecha, Michael Hegarty, Chelsea Jones, Kaylin Lee, Agathe Lucas, Nicole van Maanen, Inga Menke, Peter Pfleiderer, Burcu Yesil, Jan C. Minx
Nature Climate Change
This study emphasizes discrepancies in climate research across different global regions and points to an 'attribution gap' between high-income and low-income countries using the BERT language model. Read More →

Enhanced El Niño–Southern Oscillation Variability in Recent Decades

October 2021
Pamela R. Grothe, Kim M. Cobb, Giovanni Liguori, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Antonietta Capotondi, Yanbin Lu, Hai Cheng, R. Lawrence Edwards, John R. Southon, Guaciara M. Santos, Daniel M. Deocampo, Jean Lynch‐Stieglitz, Tianran Chen, Hussein R. Sayani, Diane M. Thompson, Jessica L. Conroy, Andrea L. Moore, Kayla Townsend, Melat Hagos, Gemma O'Connor, Lauren T. Toth
American Geophysical Union
Recent modeling studies suggest that El Niño will intensify due to greenhouse warming.Read More →

Global urban population exposure to extreme heat

October 2021
Cascade Tuholske, Kelly Caylor, Chris Funk, Andrew Verdin, Stuart Sweeney, Kathryn Grace, Pete Peterson, and Tom Evans
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
This study finds that global population exposure to extreme heat increased nearly 200% from 1983 to 2016. Read More →

Evidence for massive and recurrent toxic blooms of Alexandrium catenella in the Alaskan Arctic

October 2021
Donald M. Anderson, Evangeline Fachon, Robert S. Pickart, Peigen Lin, Alexis D. Fischer, Mindy L. Richlen, Victoria Uva, Michael L. Brosnahan, Leah McRaven, Frank Bahr, Kathi Lefebvre, Jacqueline M. Grebmeier, Seth L. Danielson, Yihua Lyu, and Yuri Fukai
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
This study explores how warming can facilitate range expansions of harmful algal bloom species into waters where temperatures were formerly unfavorable.Read More →

Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure

September 2021
Tobias Geiger, Johannes Gütschow, David N. Bresch, Kerry Emanuel, and Katja Frieler
Nature Climate Change
This study quantifies country-level population exposure to tropical cyclone winds for different magnitudes of global mean surface temperature increase and future population distributions.Read More →

Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes

September 2021
Wim Thiery, Stefan Lange, Joeri Rogelj, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Lukas Gudmundsson, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Marina Andrijevic, Katja Frieler, Kerry Emanuel, Tobias Geiger, David N. Bresch, Fang Zhao, Sven N. Willner, Matthias Büchner, Jan Volkholz, Nico Bauer, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Louis François, Manolis Grillakis, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Thomas Hickler, Veronika Huber, Akihiko Ito, Jonas Jägermeyr, Nikolay Khabarov, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Wenfeng Liu, Wolfgang Lutz, Matthias Mengel, Christoph Müller, Sebastian Ostberg, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Tobias Stacke, Yoshihide Wada
Science
This study estimates that, under current climate pledges, children born in 2020 will experience a two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heat waves, compared with people born in 1960.Read More →