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Peer-reviewed Study

This category encompasses original research on attribution that has undergone peer review. It applies to specific studies; not to reviews or meta-analyses of the studies.

Attribution of CO2 Emissions from Brazilian Deforestation to Consumers Between 1990 and 2010

April 2013
Jonas Karstensen, Glen P. Peters, Robbie M. Andrew
Environmental Research Letters
This study analyzes the connection between Brazilian deforestation and the global consumption of products reliant on deforested areas, such as cattle and soybeans. It highlights the growing role of trade in driving deforestation. Read More →

Upward expansion of fire-adapted grasses along a warming tropical elevation gradient

November 2012
Courtney L. Angelo, Curtis C. Daehler
Ecography
This study study documents an upward expansion of fire‐adapted grasses at high elevations in the tropics as an important threat that seems to be compounded by warming trends.Read More →

The Absence of a Role of Climate Change in the 2011 Thailand Floods

July 2012
Thomas C. Peterson, Peter A. Stott, Stephanie Herring
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Using a variety of methodologies, six extreme events of the previous year are explained from a climate perspective.Read More →

Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change

May 2012
Stefan Dullinger, Andreas Gattringer, Wilfried Thuiller, Dietmar Moser, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Antoine Guisan, Wolfgang Willner, Christoph Plutzar, Michael Leitner, Thomas Mang, Marco Caccianiga, Thomas Dirnböck, Siegrun Ertl, Anton Fischer, Jonathan Lenoir, Jens-Christian Svenning, Achilleas Psomas, Dirk R. Schmatz, Urban Silc, Pascal Vittoz & Karl Hülber
Nature Climate Change
This study uses a hybrid model to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. Read More →

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability

April 2012
Booth, B.B., Dunstone, N.J., Halloran, P.R., Andrews, T. and Bellouin, N
Nature
This paper uses a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860–2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Read More →

On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change

January 2012
Mark C. Urban, Josh J. Tewksbury and Kimberly S. Sheldon
The Royal Society Publishing
This study develops a model of multiple competing species along a warming climatic gradient that includes temperature-dependent competition, differences in niche breadth and interspecific differences in dispersal ability.Read More →

Patterns of Change: Whose Fingerprint Is Seen in Global Warming?

December 2011
Gabriele Hegerl, Francis Zwiers, Claudia Tebaldi
Environmental Research Letters
This article explores the physical arguments used in climate change attribution, and the statistical methods applied to explore the extent of attribution in recent climate records. Read More →

Increase of Extreme Events in a Warming World

November 2011
Stefan Rahmstorf, Dim Coumou
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
This study develops a theoretical approach to quantify the effect of long-term trends on the expected number of extremes, finding that climatic warming increases the number of extreme events and the number of new global-mean temperature records. Read More →

Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming

August 2011
I-Ching Chen, Jane K. Hill, Ralf Ohlemüller, David B. Roy, Chris D. Thomas
Science
Using a meta-analysis, this paper estimates that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations at a median rate of 11.0 meters per decade, and to higher latitudes at a median rate of 16.9 kilometers per decade.Read More →

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk

July 2011
Ilya M. D. Maclean and Robert J. Wilson
PNAS
This study performs a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. Read More →

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