Climate Attribution

Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing and Addressing the Risks

May 2024
Julie Arrighi, Friederike E. L Otto, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Sjoukje Philip, Roop Singh, Maja Vahlberg, Joseph Giguere, Andrew J. Pershing, Arielle Tannenbaum, Abbie Veitch
World Weather Attribution
In this global study, the authors identify and assess the role of climate change in 76 extreme heat waves that spanned 90 countries over the 12-month period between May 2023 and May 2024.Read More →

Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescales

November 2023
T. Laepple, E. Ziegler, N. Weitzel, R. Hébert, B. Ellerhoff, P. Schoch, B. Martrat, O. Bothe, E. Moreno-Chamarro, M. Chevalier, A. Herbert, K. Rehfeld
Nature Geoscience
This peer-reviewed study reviews the evidence regarding the scale of natural temperature variability during recent millennia, and concludes that existing models may underestimate regional variability in climate outcomes over multi-decadal timescales.Read More →

Attribution of Extreme Events to Climate Change

November 2023
Friederike E.L. Otto
Annual Review of Environment and Resources
This review focuses on extreme event attribution as a significant aspect of climate science, thereby informing policymakers and the public. It highlights ethical considerations and the need for more research in the Global South.Read More →

Understanding and Attribution of Extreme Heat and Drought Events in 2022: Current Situation and Future Challenges

October 2023
Lixia Zhang, Xiaojing Yu, Tianjun Zhou, Wenxia Zhang, Shuai Hu, Robin Clark
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
This review article examines the role of climate change in notable events of the year in five major regions of the world: China’s Yangtze River region, western Europe, the western U.S., the Horn of Africa and central South America.Read More →

Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene

October 2022
Benjamin I. Cook, Jason E. Smerdon, Edward R. Cook, A. Park Williams, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Justin S. Mankin, Kathryn Allen, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Toby R. Ault, Soumaya Belmecheri, Sloan Coats, Bethany Coulthard, Boniface Fosu, Pauline Grierson, Daniel Griffin, Dimitris A. Herrera, Monica Ionita, Flavio Lehner, Caroline Leland, Kate Marvel, Mariano S. Morales, Vimal Mishra, Justine Ngoma, Hung T. T. Nguyen, Alison O’Donnell, Jonathan Palmer, Mukund P. Rao, Milagros Rodriguez-Caton, Richard Seager, David W. Stahle, Samantha Stevenson, Uday K. Thapa, Arianna M. Varuolo-Clarke, Erika K. Wise
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
This review article assesses the shared causes and features of megadroughts. Decadal variations in sea surface temperatures are the primary driver of megadroughts, with secondary contributions from radiative forcing and land–atmosphere interactions.Read More →

Extreme Weather Impacts of Climate Change: An Attribution Perspective

June 2022
Ben Clarke, Friederike Otto, Rupert Stuart-Smith, Luke Harrington
Environmental Research: Climate
This review highlights the significant role of extreme event attribution in understanding the specific contributions of climate change. It emphasizes the need for improved methodologies to better capture and attribute these events' impacts globally.Read More →