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Annual Mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and Simulated by CMIP6 Climate Models

Summary/Abstract

The rate of Arctic warming varied in time, while the rate of global warming was nearly constant over the period 1960–2020. This led to a variable Arctic Amplification (AA) defined as a ratio of the Arctic warming trend to mean global warming trend. In addition, the Arctic experienced sudden changes in the rate of warming with step-like changes in annual mean Arctic Amplification around the years 1986 and 1999. Climate models do not capture the second observed sharp increase of the AA. We suggest that the first AA increase around 1986 is primarily due to external forcing (increasing concentration of carbon dioxide) while the second sharp increase around 1999 is dominated by internal climate variability which current models cannot capture accurately within the time scale of the physical phenomena.

Chylek, P. et al. (2022). Annual mean Arctic Amplification 1970–2020: Observed and simulated by CMIP6 climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL099371. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099371.

View Resource
June 2022
Petr Chylek, Chris Folland, James D. Klett, Muyin Wang, Nick Hengartner, Glen Lesins, Manvendra K. Dubey
Geophysical Research Letters
Peer-reviewed Study
Arctic
Climate Change Attribution → Temperature

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