Summary/Abstract
This peer-reviewed study uses multiple climate models to assess the impacts of climate change on almond trees in the Trás-os-Montes agrarian region of Portugal under RCP4.5 (moderate warming) and RCP8.5 (extreme warming) scenarios. Almond trees are a good indicator of climate change impacts on agriculture because their productivity is highly sensitive to changes in temperature. Under both scenarios, climate change is expected to both reduce the risk of frost and increase the risk of heat stress for almond trees in Portugal. The negative effect of heat stress is expected to greatly outweigh the positive effect of frost resistance. Higher temperatures earlier in the growing season also increase the risk that later frosts will severely damage the trees. The production of almonds is an incredibly important economic industry for many regions, especially Asia, the Mediterranean, and the Western United States (especially California). Therefore shocks to this industry could have substantial effects on economies throughout the world. The impacts observed on almond trees may also be indicative of disruption to other agricultural supply chains which will produce public health and political stability threats as anthropogenic climate change intensifies.