Climate Attribution

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Likelihood of Cape Town water crisis tripled by climate change

July 2018
Friederike E. L. Otto, Piotr Wolski, Flavio Lehner, Claudia Tebaldi, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sanne Hogesteeger, Roop Singh, Petra Holden, Neven S. Fučkar, Romaric C. Odoulami, Mark New
World Weather Attribution
In this update posted to World Weather Attribution, scientists shared findings that climate change has significantly increased the likelihood of a "day zero" drought in Cape Town.Read More →

A Multimethod Attribution Analysis of the Prolonged Northeast Brazil Hydrometeorological Drought (2012–16)

January 2018
Eduardo S. P. R. Martins, Caio A. S. Coelho, Rein Haarsma, Friederike E. L. Otto, Andrew D. King, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Francisco C. Vasconcelos Júnior, Heidi Cullen
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Northeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2016 due to a five-year drought. Using multiple methods, the article could not find sufficient evidence that anthropogenic climate change increased drought risk.Read More →

Future Changes in Event Attribution Methodologies

January 2018
Peter A. Stott, Nikos Christidis, Stephanie C. Herring, Andrew Hoell, James P. Kossin, Carl J. Schreck III
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
This report covers a range of events, including rain storms, droughts, tropical storms, and wildfires, as well as heat waves. Read More →

2017 Montana Climate Assessment

September 2017
Cathy Whitlock, Wyatt F. Cross, Bruce Maxwell, Nick Silverman, and Alisa A. Wade
Montana Climate Assessment
This assessment reports on climate trends and their consequences for three of Montana’s vital sectors: water, forests, and agriculture.Read More →

Anthropogenic Warming Has Increased Drought Risk in California

March 2015
Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Daniel L. Swain, Danielle Touma
Proceedings of the National Academy of the Sciences of the United States of America
This study finds that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. Read More →

Causes of the Extreme Dry Conditions Over California During Early 2013

September 2014
Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The 2013 SST anomalies produced a predilection for California drought, whereas the longterm warming trend appears to make no appreciable contribution because of the counteraction between its dynamical and thermodynamic effects. Read More →

The Extraordinary California Drought of 2013-2014: Character, Context, and the Role of Climate Change

September 2014
Daniel L. Swain, Michael Tsiang, Matz Haugen, Deepti Singh, Allison Charland, Bala Rajaratnam, Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
California’s driest 12-month period on record occurred during 2013/14, and while global warming likely increased the probability of certain large-scale atmospheric conditions, implications for very low precipitation in California remain uncertain. Read More →