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Likelihood of Cape Town water crisis tripled by climate change

Summary/Abstract

Scientists at World Weather Attribution studied the effect of climate change on the lack of rainfall leading to the Cape Town Drought and found that it made the event about three times more likely. All the climate models used in their study show also the likelihood of droughts like the current one going back to 2015, although still very rare, will increase with further warming. The team looked at data for the Western Cape region which contains the dams and reservoirs providing water for Cape Town and surrounding farmland. The authors found that the main factor behind the drought and the consequent water shortage was below-average rainfall, rather than surface evaporation caused by high atmospheric temperatures. The authors also found that the likelihood of a “day zero” event was increased by about a factor of three due to climate change.

View Resource
July 2018
Friederike E. L. Otto, Piotr Wolski, Flavio Lehner, Claudia Tebaldi, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sanne Hogesteeger, Roop Singh, Petra Holden, Neven S. Fučkar, Romaric C. Odoulami, Mark New
World Weather Attribution
Online Resource
South Africa
Extreme Event Attribution
Extreme Event Attribution → Drought

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