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Extreme Event Attribution

This category encompasses research aimed at understanding how human-induced changes in the global climate system affect the probability, severity, and other characteristics of extreme events such as hurricanes and heat waves.

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Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability

April 2025
Christopher W. Callahan, Justin S. Mankin
Nature
This peer-reviewed article outlines a transparent, reproducible and flexible framework to formalize how end-to-end attribution could inform litigation by assessing whose emissions are responsible for which harms.Read More →

Climate change, El Niño and infrastructure failures behind massive floods in southern Brazil

June 2024
Ben Clarke, Clair Barnes, Regina Rodrigues, Mariam Zachariah, Lincoln Muniz Alves, Rein Haarsma, Izidine Pinto, Wenchang Yang, Maja Vahlberg, Gabriel Vecchi, Karina Izquierdo, Joyce Kimutai, Friederike E. L Otto
World Weather Attribution
This real-time event study uses peer-reviewed climate models to investigate the combined impact of climate change and the El Niño Southern Oscillation that led to extensive flooding in Brazil in late April and early May 2024.Read More →

Anthropogenic Forcing has Increased the Risk of Longer-Traveling and Slower-Moving Large Contiguous Heatwaves

March 2024
Ming Luo, Sijia Wu, Gabriel Ngar-Cheung Lau, Tao Pei, Zhen Liu, Xiaoyu Wang, Guicai Ning, Ting On Chan, Yuanjian Yang, Wei Zhang
Science Advances
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors track connected heatwaves, and identify changes in their persistence, movement, and spread since 1979 caused by anthropogenic forcing.Read More →

Dangerous Humid Heat in Southern West Africa About 4°C Hotter Due to Climate Change

March 2024
Izidine Pinto, Romaric C. Odoulami, Kamoru Abiodun Lawal, Eniola Olaniyan, Wasiu Adeniyi Ibrahim, Kiswendsida Guigma, Maja Vahlberg, Dorothy Heinrich, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Martha Vogel, Julie Arrighi, Claire Barnes, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sjoukje Philip
Worldwide Weather Attribution
This real-time event attribution study evaluates the degree to which human-induced climate change has influenced the occurrence of high temperatures in West Africa.Read More →

Changes in hail hazard across Australia: 1979–2021

September 2023
Timothy H. Raupach, Joshua S. Soderholm, Robert A. Warren, Steven C. Sherwood
NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science
This peer-reviewed study conducts a continental-scale analysis of changes in hail hazard in Australia between 1971 and 2021, and demonstrates substantial increases in hail frequency in major Australian cities where hail impacts are most significant.Read More →

Extreme heat in North America, Europe, and China made much more likely by climate change

July 2023
World Weather Attribution
This review article synthesizes peer-reviewed research that combines observational data and climate modeling to assess how global climate change altered the probability and intensity of the July 2023 heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere.Read More →

The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves

April 2023
Vikki Thompson, Dann Mitchell, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Matthew Collins, Nicholas J. Leach, Julia M. Slingo
Nature Communications
This peer-reviewed study uses extreme value statistics to show where regional temperature records are statistically likely to be exceeded, and identifies communities that may be more at-risk of high-impact heatwaves.Read More →

A global transition to flash droughts under climate change

April 2023
Xing Yuan, Yumiao Wang, Peng Ji, Peili Wu, Justin Sheffield, Jason A. Otkin
Science Advances
This peer-reviewed study shows that drought intensification rates have sped up over the past 64 years, and that this pattern of "flash droughts" is projected to expand to most land areas, with larger increases under higher-emission scenarios.Read More →

Increased U.S. Coastal Hurricane Risk under Climate Change

April 2023
Karthik Balaguru, Wenwei Xu, Chuan-Chieh Chang, L. Ruby Leung, David R. Judi, Samson M. Hagos, Michael F. Wehner, James P. Kossin, Minfang Ting
Science Advances
This peer-reviewed study creates future projections of hurricane activity (1980–2100), downscaled from multiple climate models using a synthetic hurricane model, that show an enhanced hurricane frequency for the Gulf and lower East coast regions.Read More →

Attribution of the 2015 drought in Marathwada, India from a multivariate perspective

March 2023
Mariam Zachariah, Savitri Kumari, Arpita Mondal, Karsten Haustein, Friederike E.L. Otto
Weather and Climate Extremes
This peer-reviewed study uses observations and large ensembles of regional climate model simulations to understand and attribute a devastating drought in Marathwada, India in 2015 that caused crop losses and deaths. Read More →

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