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Extreme Event Attribution

This category encompasses research aimed at understanding how human-induced changes in the global climate system affect the probability, severity, and other characteristics of extreme events such as hurricanes and heat waves.

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Climate change increased heavy rainfall, hitting vulnerable communities in Eastern Northeast Brazil

July 2022
Mariam Zachariah, Francisco das Chagas Vasconcelos Junior, Thiago Luis do Vale Silva, Edvânia Pereira dos Santos, Caio Augusto dos Santos Coelho, Lincoln Muniz Alves, Eduardo Sávio Passos Rodrigues Martins, Alexandre C. Köberle, ROop Singh, Maja Vahlberg, Victor Machezini, Dorothy Heinrich, Lisa Thalheimer, Emmanuel Raju, Gerbrand Koren, Sjoukje Phillip, Sarah Kew, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Jingru Sun, Gabriel Vecchi, Friederike E. L. Otto
Worldwide Weather Attribution
Attribution study concluding that human-caused climate change is, at least in part, responsible for the observed increases in likelihood and intensity of heavy rainfall events like May 2022's catastrophic floods in Eastern Northeast Brazil.Read More →

A multi-method framework for global real-time climate attribution

June 2022
Daniel M. Gilford, Andrew Pershing, Benjamin H. Strauss, Karsten Haustein, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
This study introduces a new framework to enable the production and communication of global real-time estimates of how human-driven climate change has changed the likelihood of daily weather events.Read More →

Extreme Weather Impacts of Climate Change: An Attribution Perspective

June 2022
Ben Clarke, Friederike Otto, Rupert Stuart-Smith, Luke Harrington
Environmental Research: Climate
This review highlights the significant role of extreme event attribution in understanding the specific contributions of climate change. It emphasizes the need for improved methodologies to better capture and attribute these events' impacts globally.Read More →

Operational Extreme Weather Event Attribution Can Quantify Climate Change Loss and Damages

February 2022
Michael F. Wehner, Kevin A. Reed
PLOS Climate
This opinion piece argues for moving event attribution from academic research to operational centers to better inform public understanding and policy decisions regarding climate change-induced losses and damages. Read More →

Projected increases in population exposure of daily climate extremes in eastern China by 2050

December 2021
Shah Sun, Tan-Long Dai, Zun-Ya Wang, Jie-Ming Chou, Qing-Chen Chao, Pei-Jun Shi
Advances in Climate Change Research
This peer-reviewed study uses climate and population growth models to project how population exposure to extreme climate conditions in eastern China will change by 2050. Read More →

LEGAL RESOURCE – Climate Impacts in Southern Africa During the 21st Century – African Climate Alliance v. Minister of Mineral Resources & Energy

September 2021
Robert Scholes, Francois Engelbrecht
Legal Document - African Climate Alliance v. Minister of Mineral Resources & Energy
This expert report, filed by plaintiffs in the case "African Climate Alliance et al. v. Minister of Mineral Resources & Energy," reviews the impact on Africa south of the 15th degree south parallel.Read More →

Anthropogenic influence on extreme precipitation over global land areas seen in multiple observational datasets

July 2021
Gavin D. Madakumbura, Chad W. Thackeray, Jesse Norris, Naomi Goldenson & Alex Hall
Nature Communications
Climate change is rendering hurricanes, monsoons and other extreme events more destructive all over the world. Read More →

Attribution of the Role of Climate Change in the Forest Fires in Sweden 2018

July 2021
Folmer Krikken, Flavio Lehner, Karsten Haustein, Igor Drobyshev, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
This study investigates the impact of climate change on forest fires in Sweden during the summer of 2018. The findings suggest a moderate increase in fire weather probability with a more robust increase projected under future warming scenarios.Read More →

Filling the evidentiary gap in climate litigation

June 2021
Rupert F. Stuart-Smith, Friederike E. L. Otto, Aisha I. Saad, Gaia Lisi, Petra Minnerop, Kristian Cedervall Lauta, Kristin van Zwieten & Thom Wetzer
Nature Climate Change
The evidence submitted and referenced in climate mitigation cases lags considerably behind the state of the art in climate science, impeding causation claims.Read More →

Impacts of extreme climate on Australia’s green cover (2003–2018): A MODIS and mascon probe

April 2021
A. Saleem, J.L. Awange, M. Kuhn, B. John, K. Hua
Elsevier
This study investigates the effects of extreme climate on Australia's green cover during 2003–2018 for the end of rainy seasons of April and October in the northern and southern parts, respectively.Read More →

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