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Extreme Event Attribution

This category encompasses research aimed at understanding how human-induced changes in the global climate system affect the probability, severity, and other characteristics of extreme events such as hurricanes and heat waves.

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Global Warming Drives a Threefold Increase in Persistence and 1°C Rise in Intensity of Marine Heatwaves

April 2025
Marta Marcos, Angel Amores, Miguel Agulles, Xiangbo Feng
PNAS
This study provides a quantitative assessment of global warming's impact on marine heatwaves and concludes that global warming has contributed to both the increased frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves.Read More →

People Exposed to Climate Change: December 2024-February 2025

March 2025
Raina DeFonza et al.
Climate Central
This report analyzes the influence of climate change on global temperatures between December 2024-February 2025 using Climate Central's Climate Shift Index (CSI)Read More →

Attributing Global Impacts of Local Extremes to Climate Change for Improving Loss and Damage Estimates

March 2025
Camille J Mora et al.
Environmental Research Letters
This study addresses methodologies in attribution science to estimate loss and damages attributed to a climate change-driven extreme event.Read More →

Attributing Heatwave-Related Mortality to Climate Change: A Case Study of the 2009 Victorian Heatwave in Australia

January 2025
Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al.
Environmental Research: Climate
This study assesses the attribution of mortalities from an Australian heatwave to climate change. It focuses specifically on the 2009 heatwave in Victoria. Read More →

Human-Caused Ocean Warming Has Intensified Recent Hurricanes

November 2024
Daniel M Gilford, Joseph Giguere and Andrew J Pershing
Environmental Research: Climate
This study offers an attribution framework to establish the causal connection between human-driven ocean warming and hurricane intensity.Read More →

The Footprint of Human-induced Climate Change on Heat-Related Deaths in the Summer of 2022 in Switzerland

July 2024
Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera, Evan de Schrijver, Dominik L. Schumacher, Martina S. Ragettli, Erich M. Fischer, Sonia I. Seneviratne
Environmental Research Letters
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors quantify the heat-related mortality burden attributed to human-induced climate change in Switzerland during the summer of 2022.Read More →

Increasing frequency and intensity of the most extreme wildfires on Earth

June 2024
Calum X. Cunningham, Grant J. Williamson, David M. J. S. Bowman
Nature Ecology & Evolution
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors assess the frequency of extreme wildfire events, and find that the frequency of >99.99th percentile events has increased by 2.2x between 2002 and 2023.Read More →

Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts

May 2024
Nicholas J. Leach, Christopher D. Roberts, Matthias Aengenheyster, Daniel Heathcote, Dann M. Mitchell, Vikki Thompson, Tim Palmer, Antje Weisheimer, Myles R. Allen
Nature Communications
In this peer-reviewed study, the authors use state-of-the-art operational weather prediction systems to simulate the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, and demonstrate that anthropogenic climate change made this event at least 8 times more likely.Read More →

Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing and Addressing the Risks

May 2024
Julie Arrighi, Friederike E. L Otto, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Sjoukje Philip, Roop Singh, Maja Vahlberg, Joseph Giguere, Andrew J. Pershing, Arielle Tannenbaum, Abbie Veitch
World Weather Attribution
In this global study, the authors identify and assess the role of climate change in 76 extreme heat waves that spanned 90 countries over the 12-month period between May 2023 and May 2024.Read More →

Urban planning at the heart of increasingly severe East African flood impacts in a warming world

May 2024
Joyce Kimutai, Clair Barnes, Fredrick Masambaya, Izidine Pinto, Obed Matundura Ogega, Zacharia Mwai, Hannah Wangari, Mary Kilavi, Maja Vahlberg, Julie Arrighi, Emmanuel Raju, Nick Baumgar, Friederike E. L. Otto
World Weather Attribution
In this peer-reviewed event study, the authors assess the impact of climate change, along with several compounding factors, on a series of heavy rainfall events between March and May of 2024 in Kenya and Tanzania which caused heavy flooding.  Read More →

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