Summary/Abstract
This study assesses the attribution of mortalities from an Australian heatwave to climate change. It focuses specifically on the 2009 heatwave in Victoria. The study found that “the frequency of a heatwave-related mortality event similar to the 2009 Victorian event has, on average, doubled under factual conditions relative to counterfactual conditions. Moreover, on average, around 6 ± 3–4 extra individuals out of 31 (an increase of 20%) died as a direct result of extreme temperatures due to anthropogenic influence on the climate. Despite the small total number of attributable deaths as per the epidemiological model, six out of eight climate models predicted a statistically significant anthropogenic influence, indicating that climate change increased the heatwave-related mortality impact of this event.”