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Extreme Event Attribution


Extreme Rainfall

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Attribution of the Heavy Rainfall Events Leading to Severe Flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

June 2023
Jordis S. Tradowsky, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Frank Kreienkamp, Sarah F. Kew, Philip Lorenz, Julie Arrighi, Thomas Bettmann, Steven Caluwaerts, Steven C. Chan, Lesley De Cruz, Hylke de Vries, Norbert Demuth, Andrew Ferrone, Erich M. Fischer, Hayley J. Fowler, Klaus Goergen, Dorothy Heinrich, Yvonne Henrichs, Frank Kaspar, Geert Lenderink, Enno Nilson, Friederike E. L. Otto, Francesco Ragone, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Roop K. Singh, Amalie Skålevåg, Piet Termonia, Lisa Thalheimer, Maarten van Aalst, Joris Van den Bergh, Hans Van de Vyver, Stéphane Vannitsem, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Robert Vautard, Demi Vonk, Niko Wanders
Springer Nature, published in Climatic Change
This study provides analysis of the severe flooding caused by extreme rainfall across Western Europe in July 2021. The study quantifies the increase in probability and intensity of such events due to anthropogenic climate change.Read More →

Twenty-first century increases in total and extreme precipitation across the Northeastern USA

May 2023
Christopher J. Picard, Jonathan M. Winter, Charlotte Cockburn, Janel Hanrahan, Natalie G. Teale, Patrick J. Clemens, and Brian Beckage
Climatic Change
This peer-reviewed study uses a regional climate model to project increases in extreme events across the northeastern United States over the coming century, particularly during winter months. Read More →

Unprecedented Winter Rainfall Initiates Large Snow Avalanche and Mass Movement Cycle in New Zealand’s Southern Alps/Kā Tiritiri o te Moana

April 2023
Aubrey D. Miller, Todd A. N. Redpath, Pascal Sirguey, Simon C. Cox, Perry Bartelt, Don Bogie, Jono P. Conway, Nicolas J. Cullen, Yves Bühler
Geophysical Research Letters
This peer-reviewed study documents an extreme hazard sequence triggered by a record-breaking winter rainstorm in the Southern Alps of New Zealand. This storm has implications for anticipated hazard characteristics under future climate scenarios. Read More →

Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report

March 2023
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
This Synthesis Report summarizes the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation, based on the peer-reviewed scientific, technical and socio-economic literature since 2014.Read More →

Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

March 2023
Friederike E L Otto, Mariam Zachariah, Fahad Saeed, Ayesha Siddiqi, Shahzad Kamil, Haris Mushtaq, T Arulalan, Krishna AchutaRao, S T Chaithra, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Robert Vautard, Gerbrand Koren, Izidine Pinto, Piotr Wolski, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Lisa Thalheimer, Emmanuel Raju, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Luke J Harrington, Ben Clarke
Environmental Research: Climate
This peer-reviewed study uses a probabilistic event attribution methodology to assess the dynamics of extreme monsoon rainfall in Pakistan throughout the 2022 summer season. Read More →

Global concurrent climate extremes exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change

March 2023
Sha Zhou, Bofu Yu, and Yao Zhang
Science Advances
This peer-reviewed study uses statistical analysis to link increased frequency of temperature and precipitation extremes to anthropogenic climate change. Read More →

Climate change exacerbated heavy rainfall leading to large scale flooding in highly vulnerable communities in West Africa

November 2022
World Weather Attribution
This review article synthesizes peer-reviewed data which examines the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the probability and intensity of the catastrophic May 2022 floods in West Africa.Read More →

The Role of Anthropogenic Forcing in Western United States Hydroclimate Extremes

November 2022
Wei Zhang, Robert Gillies
Geophysical Research Letters
This study uses an index to measure hydroclimatic intensity in western US states. The study focuses on attribution of the 2021 extreme hydroclimatic intensity.Read More →

Compound flood hazard at Lake Como, Italy, is driven by temporal clustering of rainfall events

October 2022
Fabiola Banfi, Carlo De Michele
Nature Communications Earth & Environment
This peer-reviewed study analyzes data on lake floods at Lake Como in Northern Italy, identifying the effect of temporal clustering of rainfall on lake flooding. This study contributes to an understanding of compound climate-based events.Read More →

Accelerated Transition Between Dry and Wet Periods in a Warming Climate

October 2022
Huijiao Chen, Shuo Wang
Geophysical Research Letters
Peer-reviewed study concludes that, as global warming intensifies, approximately 59% of global land area is expected to experience a shorter transition time between dry and wet periods, in so-called "climate whiplash."Read More →

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