Summary/Abstract
In July 2021 extreme rainfall across Western Europe caused severe flooding and substantial impacts, including over 200 fatalities and extensive infrastructure damage within Germany and the Benelux countries. This peer-reviewed study uses observational data and climate modeling to conduct a probabilistic event attribution. Probabilistic event attribution compares the probability of an event occurring in a world with observed anthropogenic climate change to the probability of it occurring in a world without climate change, all else equal. The study finds that under current climate conditions, one rainfall event of this magnitude can be expected every 400 years at any given location in Western Europe. The researchers conclude that anthropogenic climate change increased the intensity of the extreme rainfall event by 3-19%. The likelihood of such an event to occur today compared to a 1.3º C cooler climate has increased by a factor of 1.2-9.