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Impact Attribution

This category encompasses research aimed at understanding how global climate change affects human and natural systems. The resources listed below deal with localized physical impacts, such as floods, droughts, and sea level rise, and the corresponding effects on infrastructure, public health, ecosystems, agriculture, and economies.

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Climate-Driven Changes in Wildfire Seasonality Across North America

February 2026
Fanglu Fan, Chenliang Tao, Yuqiang Zhang, Drew Shindell, Hongliang Zhang
Geophysical Research Letters
This peer-reviewed study analyzes the impact of climate change on seasonal wildfire patterns, finding that atmospheric dryness is the primary driver of wildfire risk.Read More →

Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the USA under climate change

September 2025
Minghao Qiu, Jessica Li, Carlos F. Gould, Renzhi Jing, Makoto Kelp, Marissa L. Childs, Jeff Wen, Yuanyu Xie, Meiyun Lin, Mathew V. Kiang, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke
Nature
This peer-reviewed study examines the effects of climate change on wildfire smoke, associated mortality, and subsequent economic damages, which are among the most costly consequences of climate change in the USA.Read More →

Health losses attributed to anthropogenic climate change

September 2025
Colin J. Carlson, Dann Mitchell, Rory Gibb, Rupert F. Stuart-Smith, Tamma Carleton, Torre E. Lavelle, Catherine A. Lippi, Megan Lukas-Sithole, Michelle A. North, Sadie J. Ryan, Dorcas Stella Shumba, Matthew Chersich, Mark New & Christopher H. Trisos
Nature Climate Change
This report analyzes existing health attribution studies, finding that end-to-end studies are lacking, and encouraging greater investment in source and impact attribution studies for use in legal action, and additional focus on the global south.Read More →

Refining Methods for Attributing Health Impacts to Climate Change: A Heat-Mortality Case Study in Zürich

September 2025
Rupert F. Stuart-Smith, Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera, Sihan Li, Friederike E.L. Otto, Kristine Belesova, Andy Haines, Luke J. Harrington, Jeremy J. Hess, Rashmi Venkatraman, Thom Wetzer, Alistair Woodward & Kristie L. Ebi
Climatic Change
This paper provides refined methodologies for assessing heat mortality attributed to climate change, and found that almost 1,700 heat-related deaths can be attributed to climate change from 1969-2018.Read More →

Global assessment of historical changes in extreme fire weather: Insight from CMIP6 ensembles and implications for probabilistic attribution to global warming

September 2025
Zhongwei Liu, Jonathan M. Eden, Bastien Dieppois, Igor Drobyshev, Folmer Krikken, Matthew Blackett
Global and Planetary Change
This peer-reviewed study developed a framework to examine how climate change may influence wildfire events using a multi-model analysis, which confirms an increase in probability and duration in wildfires due to global temperature anomalies.Read More →

A Causal Inference Framework for Climate Change Attribution in Ecology

August 2025
Joan Dudney, Laura E. Dee, Robert Heilmayr, Jarrett Byrnes, Katherine Siegel
Ecology Letters
This peer-reviewed study investigates advances in observational research design and causal inference of climate change impacts to biodiversity and ecosystems.Read More →

Detecting and attributing climate change effects on vegetation: Australia as a test case

August 2025
Laura J. Williams, Rachael V. Gallagher, Sami W. Rifai, Matthew A. Adeleye, Patrick J. Baker, David M. J. S. Bowman, Jake Eckersley, Jacqueline R. England, Michael-Shawn Fletcher, Pauline F. Grierson, Assaf Inbar, Jürgen Knauer, Clare M. Stephens, Raphaël Trouvé, Belinda E. Medlyn
Plants People Planet
This peer-reviewed study performs a meta-analysis of existing literature on attribution of vegetation change in Australia to climate variability, finding that such attribution is difficult to prove and suggesting new methodologies.Read More →

A call to refine fire attribution: expanding the FAR statistic to capture the complexity of Los Angeles extreme fires

August 2025
Chris Huntingford, Douglas I Kelley and Maria L F Barbosa
Environmental Research Letters
This perspective examines the causes of the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires, including climate change, human land use, campfires, faulty powerlines, and other human-driven factors, and suggests improvements to statistical analyses.Read More →

The attribution of human health outcomes to climate change: transdisciplinary practical guidance

July 2025
K. L. Ebi, A. Haines, R. F. S. Andrade, et. al.
Climatic Change
This peer-reviewed guidance document published by experts in health and climate science suggests several pathways for transdisciplinary studies on the attribution of health impacts to climate change.Read More →

High-Frequency Data Reveal Limits of Adaptation to Heat in Animal Agriculture

July 2025
Claire Palandri et al.
Science Advances
This study looks at the impacts of climate change on food systems with a focus on dairy products and concludes that extreme heat reduces milk yield.Read More →

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