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Extreme Event Attribution


Storms

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Human-Caused Ocean Warming Has Intensified Recent Hurricanes

November 2024
Daniel M Gilford, Joseph Giguere and Andrew J Pershing
Environmental Research: Climate
This study offers an attribution framework to establish the causal connection between human-driven ocean warming and hurricane intensity.Read More →

Climate change, El Niño and infrastructure failures behind massive floods in southern Brazil

June 2024
Ben Clarke, Clair Barnes, Regina Rodrigues, Mariam Zachariah, Lincoln Muniz Alves, Rein Haarsma, Izidine Pinto, Wenchang Yang, Maja Vahlberg, Gabriel Vecchi, Karina Izquierdo, Joyce Kimutai, Friederike E. L Otto
World Weather Attribution
This real-time event study uses peer-reviewed climate models to investigate the combined impact of climate change and the El Niño Southern Oscillation that led to extensive flooding in Brazil in late April and early May 2024.Read More →

Autumn and Winter storms over UK and Ireland are becoming wetter due to climate change

May 2024
Sarah F. Kew, Mark McCarthy, Ciara Ryan, Jennifer S.R. Pirret, Ellie Murtagh, Maja Vahlberg, Adwoa Amankona, James O. Pope, Fraser Lott, Oliver Claydon, Barry Coonan, Izidine Pinto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip
World Weather Attribution
This peer-reviewed event study assesses the extent to which human-induced climate change and the North Atlantic Oscillation influenced the average storm severity over the United Kingdom and Ireland from October 2023 to March 2024.Read More →

Climate Change Made the Extreme 2-Day Rainfall Event Associated with Flooding in Middleton, Ireland More Likely and More Intense

February 2024
Ben Clarke, Peter Thorne, Ciara Ryan, Mariam Zachariah, Conor Murphy, Gerard McCarthy, Paul O'Connor, Emannuel O. Eresanya, Niamh Cahill, Barry Coonan
Worldwide Weather Attribution
This real-time event attribution study examines extreme flooding in County Cork, Ireland, and finds that climate change since the industrial revolution has more than doubled the likelihood of such flooding events.Read More →

Evaluation of tornadic environments and their trends and projected changes in Japan

November 2023
Sho Kawazoe, Masaru Inatsu, Mikiko Fujita, Shiori Sugimoto, Yasuko Okada, Shingo Watanabe
NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science
This peer-reviewed study examines environmental conditions associated with tornados in Japan, and concludes that climate change will result in Japan facing more days with F2+ tornado potential.Read More →

Thunderstorm straight line winds intensify with climate change

November 2023
Andreas F. Prein
Nature Climate Change
This peer-reviewed study uses observations and high-resolution modelling to show that straight-line winds have intensified over the past 40 years at a faster rate than anticipated by existing theories.Read More →

Changes in hail hazard across Australia: 1979–2021

September 2023
Timothy H. Raupach, Joshua S. Soderholm, Robert A. Warren, Steven C. Sherwood
NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science
This peer-reviewed study conducts a continental-scale analysis of changes in hail hazard in Australia between 1971 and 2021, and demonstrates substantial increases in hail frequency in major Australian cities where hail impacts are most significant.Read More →

Fewer, but More Intense, Future Tropical Storms Over the Ganges and Mekong Basins

August 2023
Haider Ali, Hayley J. Fowler, Benoit Vanniere, Malcolm J. Roberts
Geophysical Research Letters
This peer-reviewed study uses high-resolution tropical storm models to assess the impact of climate change on tropical storm activity in southeast Asia, and finds a decline in tropical storm frequency, but increase in strength and energy.Read More →

The Impact of Human-Induced Climate Change on Future Tornado Intensity as Revealed Through Multi-Scale Modeling

August 2023
Matthew J. Woods, Robert J. Trapp, Holly M. Mallinson
Geophysical Research Letters
This peer-reviewed study applies a novel climate-modeling approach to show evidence of potential increases in tornado intensity due to human-induced climate change.Read More →

Twenty-first century increases in total and extreme precipitation across the Northeastern USA

May 2023
Christopher J. Picard, Jonathan M. Winter, Charlotte Cockburn, Janel Hanrahan, Natalie G. Teale, Patrick J. Clemens, and Brian Beckage
Climatic Change
This peer-reviewed study uses a regional climate model to project increases in extreme events across the northeastern United States over the coming century, particularly during winter months. Read More →

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