Summary/Abstract
This study applies a novel, multi-scale climate modeling approach to show the potential for increases in future tornado intensity due to anthropogenic climate change. Historical warm- and cool-season (WARM and COOL) tornado events are simulated under anticipated mean atmospheric conditions over future (here, late 21st century) and historical (here, late 20th century) time slices. As hypothesized based on meteorological arguments, the tornadic-storm and associated vortex of the COOL event experiences consistent and robust increases in intensity in an ensemble of imposed climate-change experiments. The tornadic-storm and associated vortex of the WARM event experiences increases in intensity in some of the experiments, but the response is neither consistent nor robust, and is overall weaker than in the COOL event. An examination of environmental parameters provides further support of the disproportionately stronger response in the cool-season event. These results have implications on future tornadoes forming outside of climatologically favored seasons.