Summary/Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change causes more frequent and intense fluctuations in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Understanding the effects of ENSO on agricultural systems is crucial for predicting and ameliorating impacts on lives and livelihoods, particularly in perennial tree crops, which may show both instantaneous and delayed responses. Using cocoa production in Ghana as a model system, the authors analyse the impact of ENSO on annual production and climate over the last 70 years. The authors report that in recent decades, El Niño years experience reductions in cocoa production followed by several years of increased production, and that this pattern has significantly shifted compared with prior to the 1980s. ENSO phase appears to affect the climate in Ghana, and over the same time period, the study sees corresponding significant shifts in the climatic conditions resulting from ENSO extremes, with increasing temperature and water stress. The authors attribute these changes to anthropogenic climate change, and the study’s results illustrate the big data analyses necessary to improve understanding of perennial crop responses to climate change in general, and climate extremes in particular.