Summary/Abstract
Oil palm cultivation has become one of the world’s most important drivers of land use change in the tropics, causing biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. The impact of climate change and rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere on oil palm productivity is not well understood. If environmental change leads to declining palm oil yields in existing cultivation areas, cultivation areas may expand or shift to other regions. In this study, the authors assess climate change impacts on palm oil production using an extended version of the dynamic global vegetation model with managed land, LPJmL4, and a range of climate scenarios from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The authors find increasing average yields under all future climate scenarios. This contradicts earlier studies, which did not consider the potential positive effect of CO2 fertilization. If the authors do not account for CO2 fertilization, future yields also decrease in the study’s simulations. The authors’ results indicate the potentially large role of rising CO2 levels on oil palm cultivation. This highlights the importance of further applied plant science to better understand the impact of climate change and elevated CO2 levels on oil palm growth and productivity.