Summary/Abstract
As warming temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change accelerate the melting of arctic permafrost, greenhouse gases stored in organic material trapped under the ice will be released. This effect creates a feedback loop, as warming temperatures cause the release of greenhouse gases into the air which cause further warming. The extent of the warming created by the arctic permafrost melt will greatly depend on the soil composition created by melting ice. Dryer conditions would result in the release of carbon dioxide (CO₂), whereas wet conditions and water-logged soil would create the anaerobic environment necessary to produce methane (CH₄). Methane has a global warming potential (GWP) which is an order of magnitude higher than CO₂, although it is more short-lived in the atmosphere. The model showed that increased arctic temperatures are likely to result in drier conditions– less cloud formation and faster evaporation– which will favor the release of CO₂ over CH₄. While this will slow warming in the short-term, it could lead to more long-lived climate impacts. Understanding the arctic permafrost feedback loop is vital to projecting future climate impacts, as it could lead to the rapid acceleration of warming effects, and represents a “tipping point” in global climate change which would have permanent consequences.