Summary/Abstract
The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is issued annually by the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO). It provides a synthesis of the global annual to decadal predictions produced by the WMO designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres for the period 2022- 2026. Latest predictions suggest that:
The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2022 and 2026 is
predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.7°C higher than preindustrial levels (the average over
years 1850-1900).
The chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels at
least one year between 2022 and 2026 is about as likely as not (48%). There is only a small
chance (10%) of the five-year mean exceeding this threshold.
The chance of at least one year between 2022 and 2026 exceeding the warmest year on
record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of the five-year mean for 2022-2026 being higher than the
last five years (2017-2021) is also 93%.
There is no signal for the El Niño Southern Oscillation for December-February 2022/23, but
the Southern Oscillation index is predicted to be positive in 2022.
The Arctic temperature anomaly, compared to the 1991-2020 average, is predicted to be
more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly when averaged over the next
five northern hemisphere extended winters.
Predicted precipitation patterns for 2022 compared to the 1991-2020 average suggest an
increased chance of drier conditions over southwestern Europe and southwestern North
America, and wetter conditions in northern Europe, the Sahel, north-east Brazil, and
Australia.
Predicted precipitation patterns for the May to September 2022-2026 average, compared to
the 1991-2020 average, suggest an increased chance of wetter conditions in the Sahel,
northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and drier conditions over the Amazon.
Predicted precipitation patterns for the November to March 2022/23-2026/27 average,
compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased precipitation in the tropics and
reduced precipitation in the subtropics, consistent with the patterns expected from climate
warming.