Global impacts of heat and water stress on food production and severe food insecurity

Summary/Abstract

In this study the authors use “a unique large-dimensional computational global climate and trade model, GTAP-DynW,” to assess climate impacts on agricultural production and food insecurity to 2050. to directly project the possible intertemporal impacts of water and heat stress on global food supply and food security to 2050. The authors present assessments for three representative concentration pathways: RCP4.5-SSP2, RCP8.5-SPP2, and RCP8.5-SSP3 (population growth only for SSPs). By 2050, the authors project that water and heat stress may cause declines in global food production of 6%, 10%, and 14% (respectively, for each RCP), and corresponding increases in food-insecure population by 556 million, 935 million, and 1.36 billion compared to the 2020 model baseline.