Summary/Abstract
Climate change is an important threat to the world’s plant and animal species, including species on which humans depend. However, predicting how species will respond to future climate change is very difficult. In this study, I analyze the extinctions caused by the climate change that has already occurred. Numerous studies find that species are shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, typically moving to higher elevations and latitudes. These studies also contain valuable data on local extinctions, as they document the loss of populations at the “warm edge” of species’ ranges (lower elevations and latitudes). Here, I use these data to show that recent local extinctions related to climate change have already occurred in hundreds of species around the world. Specifically, among 976 species surveyed, local extinctions occurred in 47%. These extinctions are common across climatic zones, habitats, and groups of organisms but are especially common in tropical regions (which contain most of Earth’s species), in animals (relative to plants), and in freshwater habitats. In summary, this study reveals local extinctions in hundreds of species related to the limited global warming that has already occurred. These extinctions will almost certainly increase as global climate continues to warm in the coming decades.